The Soapbox

Stimp

Joined: 10/15/1998 Posts: 2176
Likes: 1999


In a vacuum, probably.


But there are a few things going on.

1. Wednesday, the FED indicated growth will slow to 2% in 2020. Seems it's skeptical of the staying power of the tax cuts, deregulation, repatriation, etc.
2. Fear that rate hikes will choke off expanding economy (thus, the long end staying relatively anchored)
3. The globe was cooking earlier this year. You're starting to see cracks in Europe.
4. ~ $10T of sovereign debt still has negative interest rates, providing a bid for our debt.
5. Demand for long(er) dated debt remains strong, especially by insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, and pension plans.
6. Flat(ter) curves typically signal late(r) innings of the economic cycle.

Throw all of that on top of inflation that still can't hit 2% (by the FED's preferred measure, the PCE deflator) and you have a yield curve (at least the part that the FED does not control) that is stuck.

(In response to this post by Shenhoo)

Posted: 06/15/2018 at 2:19PM



+2

Insert a Link

Enter the title of the link here:


Enter the full web address of the link here -- include the "http://" part:


Current Thread:
 
  
4% GDP coming true -- ConnHoo 06/15/2018 07:57AM
  Down from Obama's 5.7%? ** -- HokieDelNorte 06/15/2018 11:21AM
  Check that. Reverse it. ** -- Stimp 06/15/2018 10:47AM
  Really? Reverse which part? I'm pretty sure the -- BocaHoo91 06/15/2018 10:59AM
  Nominal includes inflation; real only growth ** -- Stimp 06/15/2018 11:02AM
  What is your reading if the current -- Shenhoo 06/15/2018 11:21AM
  Inflation is not a problem -- Stimp 06/15/2018 11:30AM
  In a vacuum, probably. -- Stimp 06/15/2018 2:19PM
  Wonky Post of the Week! ** -- hoolstoptheheels 06/15/2018 3:46PM
  Oil prices can contribute too. ** -- ConnHoo 06/15/2018 12:30PM
  Yes, we got spun around the word axle. ** -- Stimp 06/15/2018 11:14AM
  Thanks! ** -- BonsackHoo 06/15/2018 10:44AM
  And the government continues -- Capital City Hoo 06/15/2018 10:07AM
  Poke the bear lose the chair! ** -- Hooooooooooooooo 06/15/2018 11:17AM
  And yet the GOP keeps losing elections -- walkthecorner 06/15/2018 09:30AM
  We will see what happens in Nov, but the GOP -- Capital City Hoo 06/15/2018 10:01AM
  Not counting any chickens at all. Elections -- walkthecorner 06/15/2018 10:05AM
  We will see -I have been speaking to -- walkthecorner 06/15/2018 09:50AM
  Ha. No 5.4 Bullshit today? ** -- Shenhoo 06/15/2018 08:29AM
  A sad development for Bill Maher ** -- Tuckahokie 06/15/2018 08:04AM
  Trade war started with China. ** -- Lazarus 06/15/2018 08:27AM

Notice: Trying to get property 'queue' of non-object in /data/www/sportswar.com/wp-includes/script-loader.php on line 2781

Warning: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() in /data/www/sportswar.com/wp-includes/script-loader.php on line 2781
vm307