My guess is turnout is going to be big from both sides.
That TargetEarly site shows race + education: Hispanic turnout is up .5%, but college educated white is up 2% and non-college white is down 3%. If the college white trend held that's a plus for Biden, perhaps Hispanic turnout jumps on election day.
One thing I've not seen addressed is Rs or Is that objected to Trump and were won over, or are convinced Biden will usher in a militant leftist agenda, or something like that. Hard mind frame to put yourself into, but wasnt JM or Hooda an example of that? The last four years have been so strange and divided and so much happened, people who were not as involved in following politics went to becoming obsessive about it, it's become central as a kind of entertainment. That came to mind in the context of thinking about higher turnout from supporters of both candidates, people that could possibly like Trump *more* in 2020 than 2016. Maybe that's just not a category at all.
Agree with the notion high overall turnout could create uncertainty, and it does make sense to put resources into TX for local races and future D prospects with as much money as Biden and Bloomberg have. Biden winning there seems like a reach, but I don't know sh*t and am open to surprises.
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In response to this post by Shenhoo)
Posted: 10/27/2020 at 2:27PM