The Soapbox

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What's this?

Stuff like this (and Biden +3 in Texas tbh) alarm me about polling more

than anything. The idea that Trump won Montana by 20% in 2016, has a 94% approval rating among Rs, and he'll win by 2% this time doesn't seem to pass the test of basic common sense. Montana has a lot of independents, I'm sure it's a different breed type of place, but it makes me wonder about averages getting skewed.

Montana has had a lot of early voting, 72% of the 2016 votes have been cast. So far the gap between R and D registered voters is 15%. Wider R advantage than early voting in '16, but it's pulling a lot of the votes forward obviously.

(In response to this post by wahoo138)

Posted: 10/27/2020 at 11:43PM

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Current Thread:

The polls could be wrong. But that may help Biden, not just Trump. -- wahoo138 10/27/2020 10:19PM

Who "buys" the polls? -- MasterRusty 10/28/2020 05:19AM

"Liberal/FarLeft" = report facts that make me uncomfortable, therefore -- vwahoov 10/28/2020 07:54AM

If there is a year where polls might be completely off, it would be this -- JohnHoo2 10/28/2020 01:56AM

Absolutely -- wahoo138 10/28/2020 02:02AM

Texas... watch Texas. ** -- vwahoov 10/28/2020 07:53AM

Bloomberg says early-turnout has already reached half of '16 total -- vwahoov 10/27/2020 11:07PM

I don't know if you can make such assumptions -- wahoo138 10/27/2020 11:12PM

And early/mail-in voting turnout will be high due to many states wouldn't -- JohnHoo2 10/28/2020 02:16AM

Yeah, I just caught the headline... I wouldn't bet the farm on it, but it's -- vwahoov 10/27/2020 11:15PM

Did Trump squeeze every last voter he could out of 2016? That seemed to be -- wahoo138 10/27/2020 11:17PM

There's also the E.C., and GOP cheating to be concerned about. -- vwahoov 10/28/2020 03:30AM

I was looking at recent polls from WI and MI. They really aren't close. -- Shenhoo 10/27/2020 10:26PM

I'm surprised and annoyed at how close PA is. Given Biden's tie to that -- JohnHoo2 10/28/2020 02:09AM

If you reference his chart you see -- wahoo138 10/27/2020 10:30PM

I read it earlier today. Iirc, it's at Cooks site. ** -- Shenhoo 10/27/2020 10:32PM

Somebody brought up a good point re: Arizona -- wahoo138 10/27/2020 10:37PM

As does Montana. Hoping it brings out every dirty fucking hippie in the -- Shenhoo 10/27/2020 10:42PM

Saw a poll today that had Biden within 2 in Montana -- wahoo138 10/27/2020 10:46PM

Stuff like this (and Biden +3 in Texas tbh) alarm me about polling more -- hoodeyo 10/27/2020 11:43PM

Agree on Montana, not so much Texas -- wahoo138 10/28/2020 01:09AM

I think floating the idea Texas is in play is a bit of a gambit to create -- hoodeyo 10/28/2020 08:58AM

Probably ** -- wahoo138 10/27/2020 10:34PM

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