5% chance of a Trump win converts to odds of Trump +1900,
a bet of $100 to win $1,900. Going into it, I would have felt good about that risk-reward given the uncertainty and available information, simple as that.
Nassim Taleb has a mathematical explanation why he thinks the models are faulty, I only partially understand it, but there's a lot of criticism of them from people who price risk that think it was always more in the direction of 50-50, will link an example.
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In response to this post by hoolstoptheheels)
Link: https://twitter.com/SimonDeDeo/status/1322765502431768576
Posted: 11/04/2020 at 09:43AM