The Soapbox

hoodeyo

Joined: 09/29/2013 Posts: 6412
Likes: 3382


5% chance of a Trump win converts to odds of Trump +1900,


a bet of $100 to win $1,900. Going into it, I would have felt good about that risk-reward given the uncertainty and available information, simple as that.

Nassim Taleb has a mathematical explanation why he thinks the models are faulty, I only partially understand it, but there's a lot of criticism of them from people who price risk that think it was always more in the direction of 50-50, will link an example.

(In response to this post by hoolstoptheheels)

Link: https://twitter.com/SimonDeDeo/status/1322765502431768576


Posted: 11/04/2020 at 09:43AM



+1

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Current Thread:
 
  
Glad I got in on Biden at +450 last night ** -- CharlestonSC 11/04/2020 08:20AM
  Are you hedging now or all in? ** -- thebombardier 11/04/2020 09:32AM
  Yeah nice hit ** -- wahoo138 11/04/2020 08:25AM
  Nice work. Amazing. ** -- Molina 11/04/2020 08:24AM
  Good move. What time of the night was that. ** -- Shenhoo 11/04/2020 08:23AM
  The betting market was predictably stupid -- wahoo138 11/04/2020 08:27AM
  Huge middles all night ** -- wahoo138 11/04/2020 08:46AM
  If Biden winds up winning? Why? -- hoolstoptheheels 11/04/2020 08:37AM
  Taleb imo has a really good sense for probability theory. -- hoolstoptheheels 11/04/2020 09:48AM
  His perspectives are relevant and important -- hoodeyo 11/04/2020 10:03AM
  Actually last night the limits were removed ** -- CharlestonSC 11/04/2020 08:42AM
  Ah, interesting -- WahooMatt05 11/04/2020 08:44AM
  That's a point I've been making about that market -- wahoo138 11/04/2020 08:35AM

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