Overall, I much prefer talks to the "bloody nose" targeted-strike military approach Lindsey Graham has discussed. In the near term, this is far preferable. SK and NK are meeting again in April, and Trump and Kim are tentatively scheduled for May, with Kim promising no tests until then. So that ratchets down the heat on the peninsula. It's a clear positive for the next few months. But given who Trump is and his history, I'm more cautious than optimistic, especially in the long term.

Trump deserves some credit for this. I don't think he scared Kim, but the blockade and sanctions do seem to be squeezing NK some. And I think Trump definitely scared SK, who are the ones reaching out and playing the conciliator. But I feel they're in a position of weakness to Kim.

That said, Trump clearly didn't think this through. (Surprise, surprise!) His staff was blindsided by the decision and would have advised against it. It seems like he wants to turn the page by doing dramatic things to get out of his administration's funk, so it was tariffs followed by this big announcement. Trump wants to do something he thinks previous presidents couldn't do. But previous presidents certainly could have sat down with the Kims. The Kims have been trying to get that to happen for decades. It was all about the terms of the meeting.

The U.S. has been saying a precondition of any talks would be NK taking concrete steps to denuclearize before meeting. Kim just got a sitdown that elevates him in the eyes of the world to an equal of the U.S. president without doing any such thing. Trump is saying SK has said Kim "talked about denuclearization." But Kim has gotten his summit without promising anything more than not testing for two months. Huge win for Kim.

Which brings me to the crux. I think Kim is far savvier than Trump, so I worry about what Trump will give away in the room. We've seen over and over that he will say pretty much whatever comes into his mind at any given moment. He can walk things back domestically when the GOP aids and abets his retreat, but that's not so easy at a major summit like this. Kim will kiss Trump's ass, and Trump will eat it up. I think this summit will help Kim and NK more than the U.S. Kim could conceivably get the blockade lifted while simply buying himself time to keep working on his nuclear program. Which, make no mistake, they are doing as we speak.