(1) Obama did underestimate the threat posed by Russia and over-estimated his capacity to sway Putin. So too did George W. Bush and Bill Clinton in the post Cold War era. Bush's first trip to Europe was to a Russian summit where he hinted he might support opening NATO to Russian membership. Here's what Bush said at the end of the summit: "We had a very good dialogue. I was able to get a sense of his soul. He's a man deeply committed to his country and the best interests of his country and I appreciate very much the frank dialogue and that's the beginning of a very constructive relationship."

(2) Obama's mistakes, like that of Bush, came in his first dealings with Putin, before Russia annexed the Crimea. Afterwards, Obama recognized his hopes for a reformed Russia were misplaced and that their threat was greater then realized, so Obama backed sanctions and the removal of Russia from the G8. Bush had a similar change towards Putin after Russia invaded Georgia.

(3) The critical difference between Obama and Bush, on one hand, and Trump, is the first two made a geopolitical choice based on assumptions that changed after Russia behave aggressively. But every time Russia aggression comes to light, whether it continuing efforts to interfere in our elections or poisoning his enemies on the soil of our allies, Trump only re-doubles his love and affirmation for the Russian leader. The first reason is obvious: Russian efforts may have won Trump the election, and Trump's ego is too fragile to ever acknowledge that. It reamins to be seen whether Putin has pee tapes and incriminating financial records and Trump's inner circle actively and knowingly colluded with Russia; it's certainly possible Trump and his inner circle were simply to stupid to know they were being played.

(4) Those differences are critical to understand because they explain the likely future course. Bush and Obama changed direction after their geopolitical calculus proved wrong; both did get tougher on Russia. Trump will never change because he was never motivated to do what was in the best interest of America or its allies. His goal is to protect his ego and hiding from others how stupid and/or corrupt he was in his dealings. Those goals won't change and neither will Trump, which is why he is a menace on a level that simply isn't comparable to either his Republican or Democratic predecessors.


[Post edited by NorthernExposure at 07/17/2018 9:12PM]