I recognize that odds making has limited utility at this point.

While I think the repub party is lost in terms of being unmoored from so many of its core principles, and having become a far right populist nationalist party, I think at this point they have their shit together far more than the dems do from a competitive standpoint.

Unfortunately, I just don't believe this impeachment thing is going to work out well for us anti-Trumpies. I mean, I was fighting tooth and nail below about all the obfuscation around this thing, but it makes no difference what I think. Dems are preaching to the converted with me. This isn't 1974 or even 1998 - the country is not going to have a shared experience in digesting these public hearings. We are going to see it as our echo chambers feed it to us.

So I don't expect anybody to be moved. And if public opinion does not move more towards impeachment, this poll suggests at best a toss up election. Fingers crossed, but like I keep saying, if the final result is Trump impeached, acquitted, and then re-elected, then this whole impeachment effort will be worse than counterproductive. It will be Trump and Trumpism exonerated and confirmed in an election.

I said it before - this is the kind of fight one should only choose if a win is assured - either a conviction in the senate or the election next November. We know we'll lose the former, and the latter is a crapshoot.

Quote I recently heard about dems - when they form a firing squad, they make a circle around the condemned prisoner before shouting "FIRE"!