so far, the impact of COVID19 has been strongest in lefty strongholds... Seattle, Bay, NYC.

If you're in the middle of nowhere, easy to believe the Fox News and Trump narrative (hell, you don't like NYC anyhow...). We will see if hell shows up in their town or state in the coming weeks. If we're able to keep the phenomenon regional (or largely urban), the narrative among the loyalists stays intact.

I really do think the impact will vary tremendously by region - even with our mobile population (which has become a lot less mobile in recent weeks). We will see what happens - but I do think things will be bad in FL and PA at least (very close to the NYC orbit), and those states will be important this year We will see about the others. Flyover country doesn't matter much, nor do some of the states in the deep South. These numbers are relevant in a very small number of places. I'm guessing the disapproval rate is very high in SF - and that don't mean shit (to quite Michael Jordan).