Emerson poll, which had been a consistently outlier friendly (it could have been a right model; I'm not poll deconstructing here).

In the 8 polls, including Fox's, Biden had a 5 point advantage, and this was at a time when he was simply flopping on the banks heading into primary season.

At his best, Trump was touching 45 percent approval I am guessing, and that might be on the high side.

Inside the Fox News bubble, where the hosts (5 months into this) are shocked that children can get Covid-19, and where reporting consists of "borrowing" quotes from 8 month old Politico minor stories to create a narrative from whole cloth their readers want to hear, it isn't surprising that they wouldn't understand how that likely it was that the voters who rejected Republicans en masse in 2018 would not do it eagerly again.

But, yeah, as long as Trump could ride the coattails of the Obama/Biden recovery and not face any new challenges, he'd be better off. But facing challenges and leading in difficult times are what makes or breaks Presidents. This one could not have managed his challenge worse although the vast sums of money he through into the economy is helpful --so it is a good thing he's in a re-election year and the usual Republicans played their usual lapdog role and let the Dems run this thing from the House.