Last week was Trump's last face to face comparison with Biden. It was probably his best chance to close the gap barring (Barring?) some late October surprise. I said at the conclusion of the debate that viewers will probably see a draw, and that we wouldn't really get a feel before early this week.

I think the tea leaf of this isn't that Joe has some level of momentum. I think that it is telling us that with those paying at least enough attention to put down a few bucks that from what they're readiing, we're moving into late in the 4th quarter with a couple score (for Joe) lead.

You're certainly correct about the odds though, and as Nate Silver has pointed out, batters hitting .250 get hits all the time.