I'm seeing a 3 week lagged death rate of 1.7% based on the 7 day average

for both cases and deaths.

Average deaths last 7 days................. 797
Average cases 7 days ended 10/7......45,740

797 / 45.7K = 1.7%

If that holds (and it's been consistently between 1.5% and 2.0% for the last 3 months), we'll hit an average of 1,300 deaths per day in 3 weeks, with peaks closer to 2K Tuesday - Fridays and below 1K on Sat, Sun, Monday.

In response to this post by TomGlansAski

Posted: 10/28/2020 at 8:23PM

Almost 80k cases again today. Friday could approach 90k. Deaths are again -- TomGlansAski 10/28/2020 8:05PM

Paging Tuck! ** -- WaxHoo 10/28/2020 9:02PM

I'm seeing a 3 week lagged death rate of 1.7% based on the 7 day average -- BocaHoo91 10/28/2020 8:23PM

Yup, makes sense. We’ve definitely turned the corner -- TomGlansAski 10/28/2020 8:58PM

Wait a min, I have on good information the survival rate is 99.7%. How -- WahooRQ 10/28/2020 8:33PM

Well in fairness, the 1.7% overstates the death rate because -- BocaHoo91 10/28/2020 8:37PM

And none of the rates matter when businesses and people aren't comfortable -- Capital City Hoo 10/28/2020 8:49PM

That’s good analysis and I hope that is as high as it gets ** -- 111Balz 10/28/2020 8:30PM

I'm seeing a 3 week lagged death rate of 1.7% based on the 7 day average

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