The Soapbox

Joined: 03/05/2014 Posts: 19537
Likes: 29786

What's this?

I said long, long shot, but my thesis would be...

...1) the redneck vote is pissed off beyond belief about what is going down in Portland (and elsewhere), coupled with the fires, and many people in Portland may be pissed off, too.

2) Portland turnout may be down period.

3) No strong third-party candidate as there was in 2016, and those votes go to Trump.

As I said, a long, longshot, which is what I though the OP was asking for.

(In response to this post by Oregon Hoo)

Posted: 11/03/2020 at 12:16PM

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Current Thread:

It's 2020. There has to a state which will defy polling expectations ... -- gfhoo 11/03/2020 11:29AM

Georgia blue. Unprecedented turnout does it. ** -- WahooMatt05 11/03/2020 12:07PM

I don't see any. But I see GA, NC, FL, and AZ as tossups so they don't -- Shenhoo 11/03/2020 12:06PM

PA will stay red ... Biden still wins 271-267 -- CharlestonSC 11/03/2020 12:03PM

I hope it's not that close. The loser, either way, will contest it ** -- Oregon Hoo 11/03/2020 12:06PM

I’m on record here that I hope it’s a smear ... GOP needs to be shocked and -- CharlestonSC 11/03/2020 12:12PM

Blue Ohio ** -- CT Wahoo 11/03/2020 11:59AM

Texas, Georgia, and NC all go blue. Republicans lose their shit -- WahooRQ 11/03/2020 11:55AM

So Trump will in fact have made America great again! -- SixerHoo 11/03/2020 12:04PM

PA and FL stay red, a Southern state (NC or GA) going blue delivers the -- Capital City Hoo 11/03/2020 11:53AM

GA blue and NV red ** -- Wahoos6 11/03/2020 11:48AM

Nah. Nev. stays blue ** -- Hoobedoobedoo 11/03/2020 12:06PM

Georgia blue ** -- hooshouse 11/03/2020 11:43AM

My long, long shot would be OR flipping red. On the other side of... -- Los Angeles Hoo 11/03/2020 11:42AM

Ha! Have you MET the people in this state? -- Oregon Hoo 11/03/2020 12:10PM

I said long, long shot, but my thesis would be... -- Los Angeles Hoo 11/03/2020 12:16PM

I agree with you the rednecks here are VERY pissed at Portland -- Oregon Hoo 11/03/2020 12:19PM

Right -- I think it's just about turnout with respect to... -- Los Angeles Hoo 11/03/2020 12:27PM

I'm thinking the Dems aren't gonna know what hit them when Maryland goes -- WahooRQ 11/03/2020 12:01PM

So Minnesota going red isn't even your longshot? Oregon?? ** -- wahoo138 11/03/2020 11:59AM

MN is less of a longshot to me than OR. That's what I mean. ** -- Los Angeles Hoo 11/03/2020 12:09PM

I suspect it's one nutty ride inside ol' LA Hoo's noggin. ** -- CyberHoo78 11/03/2020 12:01PM

You have no idea... ** -- Los Angeles Hoo 11/03/2020 12:16PM

TX is MUCH more likely to go blue than OR red. Much. ** -- CyberHoo78 11/03/2020 11:52AM

Man if that happened, we should just give up on polling entirely. Biden -- BocaHoo91 11/03/2020 11:50AM

I think if Trump wins the election, especially if he wins... -- Los Angeles Hoo 11/03/2020 11:55AM

I mostly agree, but a lot of the swing states are polling with a low- to -- BocaHoo91 11/03/2020 12:01PM

I couldn't recite the state-by-state poll numbers, but any state that... -- Los Angeles Hoo 11/03/2020 12:34PM

I hope you're wrong, but at this point nothing would surprise me ** -- BocaHoo91 11/03/2020 1:09PM

Don't agree with your statement about the polls showing Biden -- CyberHoo78 11/03/2020 11:59AM

I'm honestly not sure, and I also guess it depends on... -- Los Angeles Hoo 11/03/2020 12:38PM

That's only a swing of 5%, which is not that much. -- CyberHoo78 11/03/2020 1:06PM

VA going back to red would seem more plausible. And I can't see that -- Hoodafan 11/03/2020 11:46AM

All those NoVa teat suckers no doubt produce more state and federal -- SixerHoo 11/03/2020 11:52AM

Not to mention Hampton Roads sucks more teat than anyone. But regardless -- WahooRQ 11/03/2020 12:07PM

Well, it is a massive hotbed of govt contractors. So they pull in a ton of -- psychobilly 11/03/2020 11:55AM

You mean Amazon? ** -- FxHoo 11/03/2020 12:42PM

Simmer down teat sucker. It was a joke. ** -- Hoodafan 11/03/2020 11:54AM

I agree. VA going back to red is more likely than OR. VA going red... -- Los Angeles Hoo 11/03/2020 11:52AM

VA going red wouldn't surprise your? Where do you get your information? -- wahoo138 11/03/2020 12:02PM

Four thoughts:.. -- Los Angeles Hoo 11/03/2020 12:24PM

(5) You're delusional and clueless as hell, and my guess is you haven't -- WahooRQ 11/03/2020 1:52PM

Wrong again. I have... -- Los Angeles Hoo 11/03/2020 2:30PM

Don’t underestimate the suburban women in this state. ** -- FxHoo 11/03/2020 12:45PM

A lot of them. Today is about love. ** -- ryno hoo 11/03/2020 11:37AM

I'm holding out hope Ryno was wrong and D.C. goes red! ** -- Hoodafan 11/03/2020 11:34AM

That would be the ultimate voter suppression story :) ** -- gfhoo 11/03/2020 11:53AM

TX goes blue, PA goes red. ** -- JohnHoo2 11/03/2020 11:33AM

I hate to say it, but i don't see Texas going blue. ** -- Plano Hoo 11/03/2020 11:40AM

That's my 12-5 upset pick. I'm thinking Beto almost unseated an incumbent -- JohnHoo2 11/03/2020 11:56AM

Nor do I. and PA staying red wouldn't surprise me at all ** -- Capital City Hoo 11/03/2020 11:47AM

Tex blue. Penn is still undecided after Joe has 320+. SC or Kansas stays -- Molina 11/03/2020 11:39AM

All of them. ** -- hoothat 11/03/2020 11:30AM