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BocaHoo91

Joined: 06/03/2005 Posts: 31159
Likes: 52685


Sure, assuming you're serious (probably a bad assumption), I'll give


it a stab. It requires some triangulation and inferences since the tracking of co-morbidities is loose and inconsistent at best... AND because multiple co-morbidities are listed, so you'd need the raw data to de-dupe the overlaps between co-morbidities (i.e. an overweight, diabetic with hypertension shows up 3 times in the co-morbidity list). You also have to consider that hypertension is considered a co-morbidity, as is obesity, and nearly HALF the country has hypertension and almost 40% of the country is obese. The venn diagram of those two groups probably has near 100% overlap.... but it's still roughly HALF the country about which you're saying, meh, no big deal, they had a "co-morbidity".

If you look at deaths from all causes as reported by the CDC for people under the age of 65 (shown below), prior to 2020, deaths were highly predictable at ~740K per year within a +/- 1 or 2% range. In 2020, deaths among people under the age of 65 spiked to 890K (+150K vs. the prior 5 year average) and in 2021 they remained high at 874K. And the 2021 number is understated because a) 2021 is not over, and b) the CDC reported deaths are lagged and there is a several month catch up. So by the time we get complete reporting for 2021, between 2020 and 2021, we will have had 300K "excess" deaths among people under the age of 65 . Do most of them have a co-morbidity... sure... because most Americans in total either have hypertension or are considered obese. If you look at the data for "other co-morbidities", 17% had diabetes (probably 100% overlap with obesity), 17% had adult respiratory distress syndrome (no doubt a logical contributing factor to a covid death), 6% had heart disease, 4% had cancer, 4% had cardiac arrhythmia... If you add them all up and assume there's no duplication of diabetes, adult respiratory distress syndrome, heart disease, cancer, cardiac arrhythmia, you still have a decent percentage that don't have any of those... across 300K deaths.

Then you have the anecdotal data, which you may not find convincing, but absolutely shifted my thinking on covid. I know of 5 people my age or younger (I'm 52) who have been hospitalized with Covid. One of them died. None were overweight, and while I can't confirm with 100% certainty they didn't have a co-morbidity I'm not aware of, they were all outwardly healthy people, and I'm certainly not willing to dismiss their serious cases of covid as being "no big deal" even if they all had some unknown co-morbidity. Prior to covid, I can't name a single person under the age of 50 who has been hospitalized for a respiratory virus in my entire life.

There's also a hospitalist friend who works shifts in the covid wing. She has shared stories of numerous otherwise healthy, middle aged people being hospitalized, put on ventilators and dying from covid.

Covid is FAR more risky for older people or severely overweight people, but there are also middle aged otherwise healthy (and un-vaxxed) people that are falling seriously ill and dying from covid.


(In response to this post by Manti Teo)

Posted: 12/22/2021 at 2:13PM



+2

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  Dude the data YOU used on this -- BocaHoo91 12/22/2021 10:28AM
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