from an estimated 10M+ averted hospitalizations and 36M averted infections.

From the article link below:

The U.S. COVID-19 Vaccination Program at One Year: How Many Deaths and Hospitalizations Were Averted?

Highlights

- In the absence of a vaccination program, there would have been approximately 1.1 million additional COVID-19 deaths and more than 10.3 million additional COVID-19 hospitalizations in the U.S. by November 2021.

- Without the U.S. vaccination program, COVID-19 deaths would have been approximately 3.2 times higher and COVID-19 hospitalizations approximately 4.9 times higher than the actual toll during 2021.

- If no one had been vaccinated, daily deaths from COVID-19 could have jumped to as high as 21,000 per day — nearly 5.2 times the level of the record peak of more than 4,000 deaths per day recorded in January 2021.

Background

Nearly 800,000 Americans have died so far during the U.S. COVID-19 pandemic, with more than half those deaths occurring during 2021.1 One year into the U.S. vaccination effort, much attention has focused on the stubborn persistence of the pandemic, which has been fueled by new, more- transmissible variants and the millions of Americans who have not gotten their shots. However, the positive impact of the rapid development and deployment of highly effective vaccines — the reduction in deaths and hospitalizations — has been less obvious.

In July, we reported that the U.S. vaccination program had averted 279,000 deaths and 1.25 million hospitalizations, primarily by blunting a surge in the Alpha variant during spring 2021.2 Since that report, nearly all of the U.S. has experienced a wave of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths caused by the highly transmissible Delta variant. More than 1,000 Americans are dying each day.

In this report, we update our estimates, through the end of November 2021, of COVID-related deaths and hospitalizations avoided because of the U.S. vaccination program. Briefly, the agent-based computer model analyzes features of the coronavirus, its transmission, and its effects to compare the observed pandemic trajectory (infections, hospitalizations, and deaths) to a counterfactual scenario in which no vaccination program exists. The model incorporates the transmission dynamics of previous variants other than Omicron, which is only now beginning to appear in the U.S. The model accounts for waning immunity and changes in population behavior over time as schools and businesses have reopened and travel has increased. We have refined the model to reflect emerging scientific evidence. See “How We Conducted This Study” at the end of this brief for further details on our methods.

Findings

Through November 2021, we estimate that the COVID-19 vaccination program in the United States prevented 1,087,191 additional deaths and 10,319,961 additional hospitalizations (Table 1). There would have been an estimated 35,903,646 additional infections.

The majority of these averted deaths and hospitalizations would have occurred during the late summer and early autumn, as the highly contagious Delta variant began to surge in southern states and spread to other parts of the U.S. As Exhibit 1 illustrates, the daily peak would have exceeded 21,000 deaths per day (6.3 per 100,000 population), far eclipsing the actual peak of 4,000 per day (1.6 per 100,000 population) reached during January 2021.

TABLE 1

Estimates of COVID-19-Attributable Deaths, Hospitalizations, and Infections Averted by the U.S. Vaccination Program Between December 12, 2020 and November 30, 2021

Chart Averted number 95% Credible Interval*

Deaths 1,087,191 950,101 to 1,231,195

Hospitalizations 10,319,961 9,016,329 to 11,748,945

Infections 35,903,646 29,840,604 to 41,843,396

Exhibit 1 (pictured below)

Projected U.S. Seven-Day Rolling Average of Daily Deaths per 100,000 Population, With and Without Vaccination

The majority of these averted deaths and hospitalizations would have occurred during the late summer and early autumn, as the highly contagious Delta variant began to surge in southern states and spread to other parts of the U.S. As Exhibit 1 illustrates, the daily peak would have exceeded 21,000 deaths per day (6.3 per 100,000 population), far eclipsing the actual peak of 4,000 per day (1.6 per 100,000 population) reached during January 2021.
[Post edited by Hoo TV at 01/19/2022 6:28PM]