or crediting.

I think you have to look at the individual races, and think--is this incumbent likely to win or lose?

The Republican gerrymander, in the states that have redistricted so far, really isn't too bad. My theory is that they were already as gerrymandered as they could be so it really couldn't get worse. And I mean, Dems look to actually pick up a seat in Alabama of all places because of what's left of the Voting Rights Act.

\Of course the preceding paragraph has to do with the House, really not at issue in this topic of discussion, as it is the Senate which confirms S Ct appointments. So looking at the Senate, I feel pretty good about Kelly holding the seat in AZ and Rev. Warnock, in an election where Stacey Abrams is on the ballot for the gubernatorial election, holding on as well. Sununu opting out helps Hassan in New Hampshire, and I like Cortez-Masto's chances in Nevada against the Trump-selected opposition she'll have.

The other close races are the open seats in PA and NC which were previously held by Republicans; Ron Johnson's seat in Wisconsin, ditto, and what I think is going to be a tight race between Marco Rubio and the excellent Val Demings in FL.

I think the Dems will pick up 1 and maybe 2 seats from this group, PA and maybe one of WI or FL. If Hassan or Cortez-Masto loses, this will make up for that.

I think worst case scenario for the Dems is 50-50 and best case is 52-48 which may mean we get some of BBB even if the House goes slightly red, given that more deals tend to get made in the House, especially where pork is concerned.