Apologies for the brain dump, but this deal fascinates me. I'd love to be a fly on the wall at Comcast today. Comcast practically has a seat in Congress, and I imagine they see this deal as an existential threat to their business.

The telecom providers clearly seem to think that the future lies in bundling Internet service with content. Comcast clearly understands the benefits of pairing a telecom provider with a content arm, as shown by its acquisition of NBC Universal. But doesn't an ATT/TW merger leave Comcast outflanked on the content side? NBCU is a massive figure, but so much of its value is in its broadcast division, which doesn't have the exclusivity that the TW portfolio gives ATT.

It sounds like the telecom war for subscribers will increasingly be fought on the margins, and that one big perk will be the programming that a company exempts from counting against monthly data limits. Compared to TW, NBCU has little to offer in that regard, since their most popular programming is already available for free over the airwaves. The RSNs guarantee them a decent customer base in a handful of markets, but one thing we're seeing from cord-cutting and ESPN's troubles is that a considerable segment of the population views sports as expendable. (And again, NBC's most valuable sports programming is over the airwaves.)

So what kind of Internet/content bundle could Comcast offer its subscribers that comes close to the hypothetical one ATT/TW could put together? Right now, Comcast looks okay because cable broadband remains the default source of home Internet, and they've bought themselves a monopoly in many metro areas, and they structure their Internet pricing so it makes sense to add a basic cable package. But we aren't that far off from a world in which cellular is as fast and reliable as Wi-Fi. All it would take is one realistic technological advance or a business move from a wireless company to start taking serious aim at Comcast subscribers.

ATT has 134 million wireless subscribers, while Comcast is attempting to get its own wireless service off the ground. But if ATT can offer a better price on programming AND a better cellular network, what does Comcast bring to the table? If I was Comcast, I'd be doing everything in my power to keep this deal from happening.