Along maybe with some other elements, like good timing (recent olympics providing a little thaw). Sanctions aren't new. Trump's very open volatility is. So it's going to be interesting to see how this plays out.

NK has always enjoyed a pretty solid deterrence against Mid East type interventions. Just their conventional capabilities could devastate Seoul in minutes, before we could really prevent it, even though NK would obviously lose. Not to mention Japan's proximity. And China's support - they're not likely to willingly tolerate an American occupation of NK.

But Trump might be a game changer. He gives the impression that he might just hit the button impetuously. And Kim doesn't really want to die in the process of using his deterrents; he wants his regime to live. He appears to be shifting strategy. I'm not sure there has been a better chance for a final peace treaty of the Korean War.

I think Trump is right to be cautious. I think you have to keep evaluating NK's actions every step of the way. Even if a treaty is signed, who knows what Kim considers his endgame. But if that happens, and then NK actually starts to open a bit, that should hasten the demise of their regime, and an end to the absurd oppression and suffering of the people there. No matter what Kim thinks is the endgame - his hold on power depends on his Hermit Kingdom mythology, and that's already on the clock. It's just that we'd prefer it not take another half century.

This really could be the start.

[Post edited by hoolstoptheheels at 04/21/2018 11:12AM]