circumstances A or its polar opposite set of circumstances B. The big problems arise when A or B are both equally likely and there is absolutely no clue which will happen. Is this the end of the tariff raises? Will the tariffs go up on other commodities/products?

Look how when people talk about what they think is a stock market rise or fall in reaction to an upcoming pronouncement by the Federal Reserve. The true business analysts they interview usually say something to the effect, "Oh, the Fed stuff was already factored in and this is a reaction to X that happened in China yesterday." The market "knew" which one was coming, has already adapted to it, and now the "outsiders" have to catch up.