The Soapbox

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Nate Silver had an interesting tweet today.

Polls show that Democrats are likely to win the popular vote by 8-9 points on Tuesday.

If this happens, this will be a bigger margin than Republicans had in 2010 and 1994.

However, Democrats may still not win the House. They will probably lose seats in the Senate. If either of these things happen, there will be a lot of stories similar to the post you made. But where is the real problem: (1) The Democratic party with a margin of 8 or 9 points or (2) a gerrymandered house and an unfavorable geographical distribution of Senate seats that mean winning by 8-9 points isn't enough?

Your call.

(In response to this post by Hoos Operator)

Posted: 11/05/2018 at 8:05PM

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Current Thread:

If I Lose, It Will Be Because the ‘National Democratic Brand Is a Problem’ -- Hoos Operator 11/05/2018 6:44PM

Nate Silver had an interesting tweet today. -- BonsackHoo 11/05/2018 8:05PM

Voting rights act and Urban voters -- MasterRusty 11/06/2018 08:44AM

Sure makes it easier to gerrymander thats gor sure. ** -- Hooooooooooooooo 11/06/2018 09:15AM

There is some of that. But those results are also the result of intentional -- BonsackHoo 11/06/2018 09:00AM

Getting ready, huh? ** -- hoothat 11/05/2018 11:02PM

The blue trickle is a coming? ** -- Hoodafan 11/06/2018 07:26AM

More important than the raw pop vote is where those votes are distributed -- Hoo05Dave 11/05/2018 10:52PM

My point is that it is hard to say the Democratic message is broken when -- BonsackHoo 11/06/2018 08:59AM

I'm not sure I follow. The population of the districts -- Shenhoo 11/06/2018 07:40AM

Unless you believe those dense urban areas are -- 111Balz 11/06/2018 05:44AM

Until 9pm Hillary was 90% going to win. ** -- MasterRusty 11/05/2018 9:39PM

Can you support that? ** -- Shenhoo 11/05/2018 9:49PM

NYTimes website and Decision Desk on election night -- MasterRusty 11/06/2018 08:50AM

Ah. Thought you meant Nate Silver, who was mentioned in the thread. ** -- Shenhoo 11/06/2018 09:03AM

Democrats could receive 55% of NC congressional votes and still only -- NJHoo 11/05/2018 8:38PM

My bet is that has happened many times in the past, too. I wonder if -- Seattle .Hoo 11/05/2018 8:08PM

I think the computerized efficiency of gerrymandering has taken the -- Shenhoo 11/05/2018 8:24PM

State races are super-important now and in 2020 because of who will be in -- Seattle .Hoo 11/05/2018 8:29PM

Yes, there are too many crazies in Tennessee for the Democrat to win. -- WahooRQ 11/05/2018 7:42PM

Don't give up on 'em. See Alabama.... :) ** -- Seattle .Hoo 11/05/2018 7:50PM

You mean Alabama, where a child molester running as a Republican only lost -- WahooRQ 11/05/2018 7:57PM

Hey man, take the win when you can get it! ;) ** -- Seattle .Hoo 11/05/2018 8:03PM

In Tennessee. ** -- KCHoo 11/05/2018 6:49PM

So neither he nor your Senator McCaskill are one of those crazy Democrats? ** -- Hoos Operator 11/05/2018 6:56PM

Crazy in the House lives in Iowa -- WahooMatt05 11/05/2018 7:45PM

McCaskill is a pretty impressive politician -- wahoo138 11/05/2018 7:11PM

RCP has Hawley up by 0.6 though the RCP numbers have been a bit volatile -- Doug 11/05/2018 7:32PM

Election betting odds has Hawley at 60%, and 538 has Claire at 56%. -- Shenhoo 11/05/2018 8:20PM

Almost every late poll I saw had it breaking blue -- wahoo138 11/06/2018 01:49AM

Don’t know about him but Claire isn’t crazy. She is a shrewd -- KCHoo 11/05/2018 7:01PM

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