I did a lot of buying of large caps with strong balance sheets between 21,000 and 18,000. But when we had the bounce, I had a change of heart and sold. That’s very unusual for me - I am generally not a market timer and the norm for me is 10+ year holds.

After a lot of reading and thinking, I have started to feel this decline will be different than the 2008 scenario, when the problems were largely isolated to the financial sector and the bounce off the bottom was fast once the Fed heavily committed. This problem isn’t purely financial. And we are entering the crisis with record aggregate debt levels (Corp, Govt, personal) too.

Our tendency is to want to believe the worst is over. Using mindsets developed during the course of a long bull market, who wouldn’t want to own a company at a price 30% lower than six weeks ago? The problem is balance sheet damage, lower earning (sometimes decimated) and an uncertain timetable for resuming growth.

While investors can’t wait for certainty (prices have already risen by then), in a treacherous situation like this, being very early can the same as being wrong.