that mail delivery seems to have been slower and more erratic. One of the first things Dejoy did was decree no more overtime. But postal workers bust their asses to process all the mail received in their facility everyday, leaving nothing on the floor. And to do this, historically they've been averaging about 20% overtime. Their postal service's slogan of "every piece, everyday" no longer applies, because with no overtime, unprocessed mail will started being left until the next day, so the backlog will accumulate and probably add delays to the tune of about 1 day every 5 days. With 87 days until Nov 3rd, well, you can do the math.

See https://www.govexec.com/pay-benefits/2020/07/looking-cut-costs-new-usps-leader-takes-aim-overtime-and-late-trips/166917/

Virginia is among the states that start early voting the earliest, 45 days prior to the election, and they can also start mailing out ballots at the same time. The question is, how long will it take for you to receive them a 7 weeks from now, when they start sending them out. You'll probably get it within about a week or so, but I wouldn't put off mailing your ballot in for very long. At least it should all be local mail.

See "Absentee and Early Voting" at:

https://www.elections.virginia.gov/casting-a-ballot/absentee-voting/

Many other states, have MUCH shorter early voting periods. So assuming they're like Virginia and don't start mailing out ballots until the beginning of their early voting periods, mail-in voters in those states may be screwed. For example, Oklahoma's early voting period only starts 5 days prior to the election. Oklahoma has no-excuse absentee voting, but it has a pretty restrictive absentee ballot policy, requiring it to be notarized, and a given notary cannot notarize more than 20 ballots without special authorization. So Oklahomans are already screwed, unless there's a shitload of notary publics in Oklahoma.