.. Throughout august, there was a clear trend in favor of trump, which, even though the odds never passed 50-50, was a clear problem for Biden. This obviously reversed, and strongly. Then a couple of weeks ago, it looks like there is going to be another sharp move in Trump's favor, but this quickly reversed. Now, they're kind of meandering. The absolute odds right now fever Biden less strongly than they favored Hillary at this point, but, like I said, I am less enamored of the absolute numbers than I am of the trend, which is indecisive. Absent some sort of distinct trend move in Trump's favor that starts before this weekend and holds through election day, I would be inclined to accept them to face value, making Biden about a two-to-one favorite.

Based on the folks I talk with, I expect it to be a little tighter than that, particularly in the swing States, but I won't be expecting another November surprise absent the betting odds or some other indicator (or the pundits with whom I am friendly) indicating otherwise