The Soapbox

Seattle .Hoo

Joined: 08/13/1998 Posts: 57059
Likes: 76260

What's this?

It's all about turnout now in key states. 85M in is encouraging. At this


point, nobody should be mailing their ballots. Rather use a drop box or vote in person.

I think you overstate the case about polling collapsing. It's a statistical model based on science and observation and some guesswork. The reliability of individual state polling bit them last time, but the reason was those polls were extremely close, well within the margin of error, and they under or over estimated turnout with some groups. Obviously at a macro level, nationwide, they were damned close to being spot on. You mean statistics are more accurate with a bigger sample size? Duh!

Let's not forget either that election night winner projections are ALSO based on sample polling. Not that it matters to Trumpists.

(In response to this post by Quaker)

Posted: 10/30/2020 at 2:17PM


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Current Thread:
 
  538 Forecast up to 89% Biden, 10% Trump -- Quaker 10/30/2020 1:54PM
  Doesn't the 1% control everything? ** -- Wahoo Gus 10/30/2020 5:02PM
  Serious question about this.. -- Los Angeles Hoo 10/30/2020 2:30PM
  538 has that. If Trump wins FL and OH, it predicts Trump will win 36%. -- JohnHoo2 10/30/2020 4:00PM
  It isn't that simple. They run thousands of scenarios and adjust for -- Seattle .Hoo 10/30/2020 3:04PM
  Yeah -- it's the Monte Carlo that I had in mind when.. -- Los Angeles Hoo 10/30/2020 3:10PM
  Here....538 addresses this directly. -- Seattle .Hoo 10/30/2020 3:14PM
  Thanks, SH -- I'll check it out. ** -- Los Angeles Hoo 10/30/2020 3:23PM
  To be sure, one election every 4 years with constantly changing -- Shenhoo 10/30/2020 3:05PM
  Well said. Maybe I should have tried to put it so succinctly! ** -- Los Angeles Hoo 10/30/2020 3:11PM
  I tend to agree with you. But I have -- Shenhoo 10/30/2020 2:34PM
  Yeah, I'd guess that if... -- Los Angeles Hoo 10/30/2020 2:43PM
  538 has that, although it seems like it the margin would also matter. -- hoodeyo 10/30/2020 3:13PM
  PA. It's PA. Seriously. Biden can easily lose FL and OH. -- Shenhoo 10/30/2020 2:49PM
  Absolutely agree about NC and GA. If Biden wins one of them it's a great -- Seattle .Hoo 10/30/2020 3:10PM
  I disagree on the final result, but I agree that... -- Los Angeles Hoo 10/30/2020 3:24PM
  I've thought for awhile that if... -- Los Angeles Hoo 10/30/2020 2:58PM
  Bit of tongue in cheek about the lawsuits over the -- Shenhoo 10/30/2020 3:04PM
  God, please save us from this! :) ** -- Los Angeles Hoo 10/30/2020 3:06PM
  Wanna hear the real nightmare scenario? -- Shenhoo 10/30/2020 3:11PM
  I know -- I might be able to top that one, though... -- Los Angeles Hoo 10/30/2020 3:22PM
  It's all about turnout now in key states. 85M in is encouraging. At this -- Seattle .Hoo 10/30/2020 2:17PM
  Yeah, the pollsters hopefully have learned from the past, but -- HoosWillWin 10/30/2020 2:00PM
  No doubt ** -- Shenhoo 10/30/2020 2:05PM
  If you believe... ** -- hoothat 10/30/2020 1:55PM

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