I think Silver is intelligent. He was hedging himself, but still off.
However, there was nothing rational about the last elections. We don't have the data to predict the unpredictable. Now we do somewhat ... when a cult like figure enters as a challenger and incumbent. The margin of error is huge and leans to the cult.
[Post edited by Blah at 11/06/2020 12:24PM]
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In response to this post by CMUHoo)
Posted: 11/06/2020 at 12:20PM