pontificating (as is their bent) that in a gerrymandered world, a 3-5 seat pickup would be substantial.

Had Ralph beaten Ed by 5-7 points, I'd just have said it was a bad night for Ed, and I'd be reluctant to read any significant Trump tea leaves in it.

Most voters know almost nothing about house challengers though, and incumbents win well over 90 of their campaigns. Last night was a big statement. Exit polls showed that voters who were motivated by Trump went 2-1 in favor of Ralph.