The Soapbox

Joined: 04/30/2006 Posts: 44679
Likes: 60749

What's this?

Cool, appreciate your insight on this topic.

Most of us are at least half full of shit but you seem to have a pretty solid grasp.

One question for you - you mention that corporate cuts should have an accretive effect on earnings. I don’t think anyone would dispute that — obviously companies are not going to earn less because of a tax cut. But I don’t see what good that will do, other than maybe for dividends in the short term if all else is completely constant. Do you agree or disagree?

If the economy slumps for other reasons or demand takes a hit I don’t see these cuts doing anyone any good. And even if it doesn’t I see the positive effect being very limited and hard to measure because earnings are already strong. I don’t see what incremental cash for investors in an already performing market does for the economy especially if the other side of the equation is possibly upsetting the apple cart w/r/t the housing market (still unclear how his bill will affect it but no one seems to think it will in a non-negative manner even without gutting the interest deduction) or the local economies of HCOL areas — which are where most of our positive economic growth has occurred. For the life of me can’t fathom why anyone would think the individual side of these cuts are a good idea. The Corp side is a bit more esoteric and I’m coming around to seeing some benefit there but I don’t think anyone really has processed what they’re doing yet on that side and the last bill was like a bunch of pigs at the trough st 11pm ramming in all sorts of crap.

Anyways skeptical that this thing will be any more than a turd sandwich for most of America especially if they use it as an excuse to gut benefits like SS and Medicaid. Interested in your overall take when you get the time, since you seem to come at this in a more informed and less talking pointy way than most.
[Post edited by WahooRQ at 12/14/2017 10:39AM]

(In response to this post by Stimp)

Posted: 12/14/2017 at 10:37AM

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CNN posted a handy dandy tax reform calculator -- Hoo23 12/14/2017 01:15AM

$20k to $75k seem to make out the best here ... I'm unsure how this -- CharlestonSC 12/14/2017 11:42AM

I’m going all in on bitcoin so I will be trillionaire no matter what. ** -- ryno hoo 12/14/2017 11:39AM

Or lose your shirt when bitcoins are hacked ** -- Hoo23 12/14/2017 12:51PM

Free money for everyone - no downsides ** -- FfxStationHokie 12/14/2017 09:34AM

Can't we just borrow all of it? -- Shenhoo 12/14/2017 10:26AM

Use all you want, we'll make more... ** -- Hokie5150 12/14/2017 11:49AM

Yep. Until we can't. ** -- HoosWillWin 12/14/2017 10:44AM

Amazing how every 4-8 years this tune is sung by entirely different people ** -- CharlestonSC 12/14/2017 12:08PM

It's downright comical. ** -- Hokie5150 12/14/2017 12:22PM

Agreed. Both parties are guilty of putting their political careers above -- HoosWillWin 12/14/2017 12:09PM

And the voting public rewards both for their efforts... ** -- Hokie5150 12/14/2017 1:07PM

There's also a psych experiment pitting 'traditional economic theory' -- Late 80s Hokie 12/14/2017 08:47AM

Yeah, I'd bet the experiment would yield different results if -- BocaHoo91 12/14/2017 08:59AM

Your second paragraph is pure speculation and I don’t think the first makes -- WahooRQ 12/14/2017 08:38AM

This tax bill isn't about the poor guy in Ohio -- Hoo23 12/14/2017 10:07AM

If this calculator is correct, the guy in Ohio will benefit as well... -- Hokie5150 12/14/2017 11:45AM

What about this tax bill do you believe is aimed at helping the middle -- WahooRQ 12/14/2017 10:21AM

Those bringing up poor guy from Ohio couldn't care less about him. It's -- Hoodafan 12/14/2017 10:16AM

On the stock prices point, I wonder if the passing of the tax plan could -- BocaHoo91 12/14/2017 08:56AM

I don't believe that profits will be coming back to the US regardless. And -- THECZAR 12/14/2017 09:54AM

Oh, I think the profits will undoubtedly come back. I think the -- BocaHoo91 12/14/2017 10:28AM

The 2004 rate was at 5.25% and it only brought back 312 billion. and -- THECZAR 12/14/2017 11:45AM

Repatriation would not be at 21% but rather 14-14.5% for cash and about 1/2 -- Hoodafan 12/14/2017 12:10PM

The 5.25% and 21% comparison is misleading. Companies get a -- BocaHoo91 12/14/2017 12:03PM

My investments are happy about getting that cash. But lets not pretend -- THECZAR 12/14/2017 12:37PM

I don't see a solid case for that (sell the news) -- Stimp 12/14/2017 09:50AM

Just curious (if you don’t mind my asking) but what line of work are you in -- WahooRQ 12/14/2017 10:12AM

Re: Just curious (if you don’t mind my asking) but what line of work are you i -- Stimp 12/14/2017 10:26AM

Cool, appreciate your insight on this topic. -- WahooRQ 12/14/2017 10:37AM

Re: Cool, appreciate your insight on this topic. -- Stimp 12/14/2017 11:00AM

I guess I'm thinking of valuations for large caps. You have a company like -- BocaHoo91 12/14/2017 10:05AM

"I just wish corporate tax reform was being addressed in a more thoughtful -- Hoodafan 12/14/2017 09:26AM

Thanks — I’m pretty much with you here, even on the more thoughtful -- WahooRQ 12/14/2017 09:11AM

Then why do you say "This is a gift to cash-flush businesses"? That's -- Hoodafan 12/14/2017 09:34AM

Because that’s the whole point of it. -- WahooRQ 12/14/2017 09:38AM

Because it is, but even leaving that aside, if you take the doomsday lefty -- Hoodafan 12/14/2017 09:51AM

Re: CEO pay. -- PBCHoo 12/14/2017 10:16AM

You're right, that is a revenue win-win. Is that in the latest plan? I knew -- Hoodafan 12/14/2017 10:22AM

The IRS could take on the carried interest loophole if it wanted to. -- PBCHoo 12/14/2017 09:05AM

That’s why democrats are terrified. Just like aca, people can judge for -- TomKazanski 12/14/2017 07:53AM

For me it's like Comcast, first couple of years are good then I get screwed ** -- PalmyraHoo 12/14/2017 07:43AM

I guess the national debt doesn't matter anymore? -- 06 Hoo 12/14/2017 06:45AM

I'm old enough to remember when the republicans put a debt clock up at the -- hooshouse 12/14/2017 08:31AM

You and your ilk added more debt than every president combined -- TomKazanski 12/14/2017 07:42AM

A month before Barry was sworn in (link) -- Tuckahokie 12/14/2017 08:09AM

Holy chit we're about to hit 11T! Hope we don't add 1.5 more in the next 10 ** -- Hoodafan 12/14/2017 09:15AM

What else was happening then tuck? Huh? ** -- 111Balz 12/14/2017 08:44AM

Cash for Clunkers ** -- Tuckahokie 12/14/2017 08:56AM

Green Energy Stimulus (Solyndra) ** -- Hoo23 12/14/2017 09:47AM

"Shovel-ready" projects ** -- Hoo23 12/14/2017 09:48AM

F-35 Debacle ** -- Hoo23 12/14/2017 09:54AM

I am sure what you and tuck meant was that tens of millions of your fellow -- 111Balz 12/14/2017 2:59PM

Nah...not really ** -- Tuckahokie 12/14/2017 4:23PM

Then you should not even be discussing this topic. you -- 111Balz 12/14/2017 6:19PM

10 years from now (IMO) F-35 will not look like a debacle -- CharlestonSC 12/14/2017 1:55PM

Thought the bigger flub up was with the F-22 ** -- HoosGuy 12/14/2017 11:43PM

The list could go on but in short, massive amounts of wasteful spending -- Hoo23 12/14/2017 09:58AM

Always been a big Uncle Tupelo fan. Know the song "No Depression"? ** -- WahooRQ 12/14/2017 10:56AM

Tuck can't hear you. He has his head up his own ass ** -- hooshouse 12/14/2017 08:46AM

RQ II ** -- Tuckahokie 12/14/2017 09:02AM

I voted for Romney, idiot. -- 06 Hoo 12/14/2017 07:44AM

Sure you did ** -- TomKazanski 12/14/2017 07:54AM

Did you care as much when Obama added more to the debt -- Hoo23 12/14/2017 07:15AM

Of course. I opposed ACA. -- 06 Hoo 12/14/2017 07:46AM

Then you of all people should understand -- Hoo23 12/14/2017 08:02AM

Sure, just like we did with the Bush Tax Cuts. -- WahooRQ 12/14/2017 09:21AM

If only that had some resemblence to reality ** -- 111Balz 12/14/2017 08:45AM

You mean when he inherited an economy heading into a depression -- 111Balz 12/14/2017 07:45AM

Gotta do the same during a booming stock market & low unemployment because -- khilldrup 12/14/2017 07:49AM

That's what they tell the masses. The real priority is cut taxes for the -- 111Balz 12/14/2017 08:42AM

To be fair to Barry...if you calculate the debt in relation to GDP by % he -- Tuckahokie 12/14/2017 07:20AM

The Great Depression and Great Recession -- WahooMatt05 12/14/2017 07:40AM

Equally funny to see Democrats suddenly become concerned -- Hokie5150 12/14/2017 07:00AM

It would seem nowadays that it doesn't matter when the Gov't -- BocaHoo91 12/14/2017 06:54AM

I agree with you. ** -- 06 Hoo 12/14/2017 07:48AM

So that's your share of 1.5T in additional debt? Is that what some on here -- 81_Hokie 12/14/2017 04:26AM

If by adding $150B/year of debt for 10 years you can look back and say -- Hoo23 12/14/2017 06:47AM

Somebody’s drinking his Heritage Kool-Aid. -- WahooRQ 12/14/2017 08:29AM

Gotta capitalize while the capitalizing is GOOD ** -- khilldrup 12/14/2017 08:35AM

Nah, it'll pay for itself. Why shouldn't we trust him? (link) -- khilldrup 12/14/2017 06:19AM

Because it was crafted by evil Republicans ** -- Exhoolate 12/14/2017 03:38AM

Works for me ** -- wahoo138 12/14/2017 02:25AM