The Soapbox

Joined: 06/03/2005 Posts: 31098
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But nearly 20 points went to a 3rd party. So you just have 80 points

to play with. 37 out of 80 is not as bad as 37% would be in a normal 2 party + noise level 3rd party election year.

I know a lot of people assume the majority of Perot's votes would have gone to Bush, but even if you assume Clinton would have won the Perot votes by the same margin as the non-Perot votes, that would have led to a 53%/46% Clinton victory. If that is a "thorough rejection by the electorate", we need new words in the English language to describe what Reagan did to Carter and Mondale

I agree that the electorate spoke clearly that they were not happy holding the course no matter how you cut it, but to me "thorough rejection by the electorate" goes broader than just rejecting the course we're on. As an example, I'm hoping for a "thorough rejection by the electorate" of Trump in 2020 with that being a broad rejection of everything trump stands for. I don't think that was remotely the case with Bush.

[Post edited by BocaHoo91 at 12/05/2018 9:57PM]

(In response to this post by WahooRQ)

Posted: 12/05/2018 at 9:48PM

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An interesting footnote on the GHWB coverage -- Fuzzy Dunlop 12/05/2018 3:42PM

Where is Perot buried? -- ConnHoo 12/06/2018 07:47AM

In Grant's Tomb? (actually Ross P. in still on this side of the daisies)** -- Tuckahokie 12/06/2018 08:04AM

Can I still pee on him? ** -- ConnHoo 12/06/2018 08:10AM

What is it with Trumpies and pee? ** -- Shenhoo 12/06/2018 09:27AM

Probably the pheromones ** -- Hoo TV 12/06/2018 2:23PM

If you can get past his security folks. ** -- HowieT3 12/06/2018 09:10AM

You said above you wanted to “puss.” I think you’ve got that covered. ** -- WahooRQ 12/06/2018 08:29AM

Maybe you want to reserve that for the Christian right which -- HoosWillWin 12/06/2018 08:02AM

Huh? The AP story mentioned it in the first paragraph. -- JMHoo 12/05/2018 11:10PM

Yeah, because our brain-dead electorate defected from Bush and voted for -- Faz d. Hoo 12/05/2018 10:18PM

Well, I actually think they voted for Perot...not clinton, but you are .. -- GoochlandHoo 12/06/2018 08:54AM

As mentioned elsewhere in this thread -- Faz d. Hoo 12/06/2018 10:09AM

Taxes, raise them or die! ** -- ConnHoo 12/06/2018 07:47AM

Nah man, James K Polk is the GOAT 🐐 ** -- EspressHoo 12/05/2018 9:14PM

Polk was a Tar Hole, Class of ‘18. They did have to go to class back then. ** -- HowieT3 12/05/2018 10:08PM

I’m not sure I get your point. His dramatic -- BocaHoo91 12/05/2018 8:00PM

I totally agree that Fuzzy is inventing a partisan grievance. -- hoolstoptheheels 12/06/2018 10:16AM

I don’t know how you discount the 19% -- BocaHoo91 12/06/2018 10:29AM

What might or might not have been true in 2004 has nothing to do -- hoolstoptheheels 12/06/2018 10:58AM

An incumbent president getting 37% of the vote and losing by over 200 -- WahooRQ 12/05/2018 8:47PM

But nearly 20 points went to a 3rd party. So you just have 80 points -- BocaHoo91 12/05/2018 9:48PM

Ross Perot lost the election for Bush. He had a strong -- ESHooFan 12/05/2018 9:07PM

That is an oft-heard fallacy not supported by any data that I’m aware of. ** -- WahooRQ 12/05/2018 9:20PM

Clinton 44,909,89 Bush 39,104,545 Perot 19,742,267 enough said ** -- ESHooFan 12/05/2018 10:22PM

Meaningless without electoral numbers itemized by state. -- SchmHoo 12/06/2018 09:36AM

Only if you believe more than 2/3 of his voters would have voted for -- 111Balz 12/06/2018 06:52AM

I agree. I think even without Perot, Bush likely still loses. But it's -- BocaHoo91 12/06/2018 07:20AM

Perot took a larger % of Bush than Clinton, but not enough to matter in the -- Tuckahokie 12/06/2018 07:03AM

Very fair assessment ** -- 111Balz 12/06/2018 07:04AM

Exactly. Nate Silver calls it "The Perot Myth." -- DanTheFan 12/05/2018 9:57PM

I think it's one of those things that kind of "feels" right. I went to see -- Seattle .Hoo 12/05/2018 9:40PM

Question is, would that have happened with a stronger economy -- hoolstoptheheels 12/05/2018 9:16PM

Actually a lot of analyses I've read suggest that Perot drew equally from -- Seattle .Hoo 12/05/2018 9:16PM

If true, that would make the margin for Clinton x-Perot 53/47. Hardly -- BocaHoo91 12/05/2018 9:53PM

Who said it was a thorough rejection of Bush? He lost, which is really all -- Seattle .Hoo 12/06/2018 01:28AM

The original post -- BocaHoo91 12/06/2018 01:32AM

Ah ok I glossed over that. Semantics argument. ** -- Seattle .Hoo 12/06/2018 11:55AM

James Baker claims 2/3 were righties. ** -- hoolstoptheheels 12/05/2018 9:17PM

Well, they were 100% people unhappy with the incumbent, which is the only -- WahooRQ 12/05/2018 9:31PM

Makes a good story, doesn't it? Anecdotally, I voted for Perot that year -- Seattle .Hoo 12/05/2018 9:22PM

Bush 43 graciously mentioned in the eulogy. -- DanTheFan 12/05/2018 7:17PM

They hide this information in history books. ;) ** -- Seattle .Hoo 12/05/2018 6:24PM

It’s the pervasive right wing bias in the media, stupid. ** -- ResistHoo 12/05/2018 5:27PM

Boy, that has not been my experience in seeing quite a few -- hoolstoptheheels 12/05/2018 5:07PM

Easy. We are in the "get" Trump era. All liberals are somehow in love -- Hokieesith 12/05/2018 4:34PM

I don't entirely agree. -- hoolstoptheheels 12/05/2018 9:25PM

Though speaking of getting Trump -- WahooMatt05 12/05/2018 6:21PM

Trendsetter ** -- 757 12/05/2018 8:08PM

Ah, here it is -- WahooMatt05 12/05/2018 6:30PM

What a weird take ** -- wahoo138 12/05/2018 4:50PM

I've seen lots of negative stuff about GHWB lately -- WahooMatt05 12/05/2018 4:46PM

I haven't read any obits, but have watched many tributes... -- GoochlandHoo 12/05/2018 4:03PM

Agreed. I think the coverage is fair. He did what he thought -- HoosWillWin 12/05/2018 6:45PM

I wonder how much was simply a case of the electorate looking for a change -- Tuckahokie 12/05/2018 4:26PM

It's the economy, stupid. If they election had been -- HokieDelNorte 12/05/2018 4:29PM

Outside of FDR/Truman...one party POTUS control more than 12 years is -- Tuckahokie 12/05/2018 4:33PM

Understood. Just think that line resonated with people. ** -- HokieDelNorte 12/05/2018 5:03PM

I doubt Carter's loss will be very high up there ** -- Hooddihsm 12/05/2018 3:48PM

Yep. Hope so. Bad POTUS but more so horrible timing. Great and decent man. ** -- Hoodafan 12/05/2018 4:22PM