I could argue that the largest state in the union doesn't "count" because it is such a lock for the democrats. If you're a republican in California, you have no say in the presidential election. With the current polarization in this country, basically the states that "count" are Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Virginia, North Carolina, plus probably 4 or 5 others.

I don't necessarily support switching to a direct election, but I'm not 100% sure a switch would spell the death of the GOP. Everyone points to the recent popular vote losses by the GOP, but the campaigns are run to win the electoral college so I don't think you can rely on popular vote results in an electoral college election. Would California, New York and Illinois, all solid D states, be as lopsided for the Democrats if the GOP candidate spent time campaigning there and GOP voters knew their vote counted. Same thing for Texas in reverse, but if you look at the 10 most populated states, 3 are D locks (the #1, #4, and #6 states with 73 million people ) and 2 R locks (the #2 and #8 states with 39 million people). I think those 5 states would pick up electoral votes from the "minority" party... and there are more R votes to be picked up in the 3 D locks. The remaining states are swing states so I don't think the electoral votes should be expected to change dramatically in a direct election