The president has so much less to do with the economy than people think. I think that might just serve us well for the near future, as the economy is the majority of the "accomplishment" that Trump likes to take credit for, and especially with the recent shitstorms looking worse for him, you can bet he wants to deliver an economic (and market) boost. A turn in the right direction on the trade wars, or even better, a declaration that he has secured THE GREATEST TRADE DEAL IN HISTORY!! would probably do that, at least for a time, bucking the point I make above - his trade wars arguably have already shaved a full 1% off US GDP (that was a WSJ observation a month or 6 weeks ago). Much of that lost growth could come storming back in if this cloud of uncertainty suddenly lifted.

But Trumpies hang their hat on a rockin' economy, much as populist govts everywhere tend to (even when it's limping more than rockin', like now). They come in and give away lots of stuff - how they do it differs, but they all do it, and declare themselves economic geniuses. But there is always a cost. Our deficits are ballooning at the worst possible time from an economic-cycle perspective - after an historically long period of uninterrupted growth. The squeals of joy from the loyal subjects of Trumpistan sound eerily like those in Venezuela when oil was up and Chavez was handing out bolivars like chewing gum.

We're not exposed to massive declines in one commodity like that, but we are exposed to cycles. If Trump's trade wars don't deescalate, I think a recession at the worst possible time for Trump becomes increasingly likely (which probably makes THE GREATEST DEAL EVER FROM THE STABLEST GENIUS EVER!!! even more likely).

When you are hanging your hat entirely on the economy, you are resting on a house of cards. What goes up always comes down. And generally, the govt has little to do with it.