a major one. maybe more of a correction. I don't see aything major problem area n ow, like the housing bubble, or the dot con bubble or even a real estate bubble. The continued poor performance in manaufcatoring is certainly a concern.

But the problem as you say is that we will not have the normal levers one would want to have to combat an economic turndown. We've already cut taxes, we've already increased the annual deficit, interest rates probably can't get much lower here.