The Soapbox

Los Angeles Hoo

Joined: 03/05/2014 Posts: 19522
Likes: 29754


Balz,...


...I've done this professionally for more than 20 years. I'm well aware of what is going on and how investment decisions are made.

Biden being ahead in the polls right now doesn't mean anything. NOBODY believes the polls, including the left. This is not to say that Biden isn't going to win. It's just to say that the jury is still out.

Remember 2016. We were in the midst of the moribund Obama recovery and looking at four more years of that with Clinton. Right up until around 10PM or whatever on election day, nearly everyone was saying Clinton would win, and the market was trading accordingly -- it was very soft for weeks heading into the election. When it became clear that evening that Trump was going to win, the overnight stock market futures soared and the market went through the roof the next day and never looked back.

So, in other words, neither the markets nor the polls can predict what is going to happen.

I could be wrong, but it's hard for me to understand how a market that has been fueled for four years by all of Trump's policies could also be going up because it thinks all those policies will be reversed by Biden. That is just illogical, IMO. Now, it could be that the market would be okay with a Biden win as long as the Reps hold the Senate -- that is a potential explanation for how the market is currently trading. But if you rely on polls, that wouldn't hold because the polls, as I understand it, are also forecasting that the Dems will take the Senate.

(In response to this post by 111Balz)

Posted: 10/24/2020 at 5:33PM



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