Biden was certainly not “likely” to win when the line was +450 IMO ... at
That time the NYT needles had all 3 states GA/FL/NC as 95%+ Trump which was also supposedly some sort of national bell weather where Trump needed to go 3/3... and PA/WI/MI were all looking at least OK for Trump. IMO at that point Trump was maybe a 50-55% favorite ... but not a 4.5:1 favorite which was clearly ridiculous.
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In response to this post by wahoo138)
Posted: 11/04/2020 at 08:34AM