The Soapbox

CharlestonSC

Joined: 09/20/2006 Posts: 7368
Likes: 6755


Biden was certainly not “likely” to win when the line was +450 IMO ... at


That time the NYT needles had all 3 states GA/FL/NC as 95%+ Trump which was also supposedly some sort of national bell weather where Trump needed to go 3/3... and PA/WI/MI were all looking at least OK for Trump. IMO at that point Trump was maybe a 50-55% favorite ... but not a 4.5:1 favorite which was clearly ridiculous.

(In response to this post by wahoo138)

Posted: 11/04/2020 at 08:34AM



+1

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Current Thread:
 
  
Glad I got in on Biden at +450 last night ** -- CharlestonSC 11/04/2020 08:20AM
  Are you hedging now or all in? ** -- thebombardier 11/04/2020 09:32AM
  Yeah nice hit ** -- wahoo138 11/04/2020 08:25AM
  Nice work. Amazing. ** -- Molina 11/04/2020 08:24AM
  Good move. What time of the night was that. ** -- Shenhoo 11/04/2020 08:23AM
  The betting market was predictably stupid -- wahoo138 11/04/2020 08:27AM
  Huge middles all night ** -- wahoo138 11/04/2020 08:46AM
  If Biden winds up winning? Why? -- hoolstoptheheels 11/04/2020 08:37AM
  Taleb imo has a really good sense for probability theory. -- hoolstoptheheels 11/04/2020 09:48AM
  His perspectives are relevant and important -- hoodeyo 11/04/2020 10:03AM
  Actually last night the limits were removed ** -- CharlestonSC 11/04/2020 08:42AM
  Ah, interesting -- WahooMatt05 11/04/2020 08:44AM
  That's a point I've been making about that market -- wahoo138 11/04/2020 08:35AM

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