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WahooKid

Joined: 08/14/1998 Posts: 566
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Wonder if the polling errors in 16 & 20 are just because it's Trump


The only explanation I can come up with as to why the polls were so far off in now two presidential elections is the Donald Trump effect. Essentially, it seems like there is some percentage of Trump voters who are unwilling to actually say that they support Trump when contacted by pollsters, but they will go into the booth and vote for him. It's the old "garbage in, garbage out" theory. If, say 10% of people polled won't admit what their true leanings are as regards to candidates, then the entire poll is basically screwed with faulty data.

Either that, or there's some percentage of people who willfully lie to pollsters just for the hell of it. Maybe some kind of anti-establishment thing, I don't know.

(In response to this post by Fuzzy Dunlop)

Posted: 11/04/2020 at 11:19AM


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Current Thread:
 
  On polling -- Fuzzy Dunlop 11/04/2020 10:59AM
  IMO: the polling error is misunderstanding massive turnout; not preference -- Quaker 11/04/2020 11:29AM
  Why are the polls missing in Wisky so much more than elsewhere? -- Molina 11/04/2020 11:31AM
  Turn out -- Quaker 11/04/2020 11:45AM
  And in MI, but I don't think MI will wind up all that close--not as -- Shenhoo 11/04/2020 11:35AM
  Wonder if the polling errors in 16 & 20 are just because it's Trump -- WahooKid 11/04/2020 11:19AM
  The votes for Trump were more of a middle finger to politicians and not -- Minutia 11/04/2020 11:12AM
  Two things: -- 81_Hokie 11/04/2020 11:11AM
  Kudos to Nicole Wallace last night. She was focused and kind of a broken -- Molina 11/04/2020 11:04AM
  Don't have any statistics, but it seems like 2020 was the biggest -- HoosWillWin 11/04/2020 11:04AM
  They have no method for factoring in "Who's lying to me?" That's the only -- Late 80s Hokie 11/04/2020 12:21PM
  Something is really off in Wisconsin with polling or something else. -- Molina 11/04/2020 11:07AM
  LOL ABC Biden +17. ** -- JMHoo 11/04/2020 11:12AM
  Exactly. WTH? ** -- Molina 11/04/2020 11:19AM

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