Hmmm, I think the House stays blue but McAuliffe loses.
There was something in Sabato's Crystal Ball showing the 15-16 closest seats and the Biden margin over Trump in each of them that made me feel this way, can't remember when though.
11 of them (IIRC) were Dem held, which is possibly bad for the Dems, but their margins in 2020 and Biden's margin in 2020 were pretty solid, and they were all or mostly suburban-type seats.
I think the 2011 Republican gerrymander was so effective that they've already isolated and "packed & cracked" the Dem vote so efficiently that even in a reversion-to-the-mean election year it's gonna be tough for the Republicans to pick up House seats even with a lame Dem candidate at the top of the ticket.
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In response to this post by Lupos)
Posted: 11/02/2021 at 11:20AM