of just how little we (can) know at this point...

The new variant was reported to the WHO 24 days ago, the first US case was identified 17 days ago, and the average time from COVID infection to COVID death is ~4 weeks* (28 days for those of you who were told there would be no math).

(* at least I remember it being ~4 weeks for the original variant, I don't know if it has changed with newer variants)

If omicron follows the same timing, we wouldn't expect to even see the associated deaths increasing in the US for another couple weeks, and don't yet have enough quality data that could answer the "X" and "Y" parts of: omicron is X times more infectious but Y times less severe. If it's 3 times more infectious and 1/3 as severe, that still ends up being bad overall.

That said, since it seems most of the experts who have been the most accurate throughout the pandemic are cautiously optimistic based on what they can study at this point (including fewer hospitalizations where omicron has taken off), I am happy to follow suit with their optimism. I've also seen indications that the wave in South Africa is "burning off" quickly so that also gives me hope that at least maybe this wave will be shorter.

I am still spending Christmas with older relatives - all of us vaxxed and boosted and generally being careful because we're all high risk, though I am driving instead of flying so I don't risk getting infected en route and passing it on to them.