The Soapbox

Joined: 01/04/2001 Posts: 26971
Likes: 34214

What's this?

I don't assume the worst case, I assume total uncertainty.

I am troubled by the uncertainty of the outcome of impeaching and acquitting. I think impeaching with the certainty of acquittal in the Senate is the wrong play, in terms of the odds. And I think history is not at all instructive in this case. I think we are in unchartered territory - we have never really had a Trump and our politics are under assault by social media, which has the ability to shape the views of entire blocs of voters in ways we've never seen before.

The fact that #MeToo took 20 more years to occur is part of why I think this is a bad idea. The upside of impeaching/acquitting as a deterrent to future bad behavior - nothing at all suggests that is true. Certainly not the Clinton affair. Holding Trump to account will be a criminal matter, if that is appropriate, and since impeachment is almost certain not to remove, whether it brings you closer to that depends entirely on the view of how it impacts odds of outcomes in the next election.

And I would say that is at best a crapshoot. It will definitely not have been the "right" thing to do if Trump wins again.

Impeachment is by design 100% political. It is only political That's why the judiciary is 100% excluded from it.
[Post edited by hoolstoptheheels at 10/07/2019 4:00PM]

(In response to this post by Chuck Taylor)

Posted: 10/07/2019 at 2:59PM

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Current Thread:

I don't see a problem here, unless the taxes are still under audit. -- Chuck Taylor 10/07/2019 09:46AM

I have a feeling Trump's tax return will be something similar to Obama's -- JohnHoo2 10/07/2019 10:59AM

I've always thought it would be funny if his tax returns showed massive -- 00 Hoo 10/07/2019 12:28PM

That's sort of my guess. His return will show something embrassing, at -- JohnHoo2 10/07/2019 12:51PM

Trump wouldn't care about that. He already boasted that he pays ... -- Blah 10/07/2019 1:10PM

Just a wag on my part, but I think it may raise numerous questions......... -- Chuck Taylor 10/07/2019 11:21AM

Yep. Schedule 1 showing collusion income will do him in. LOL. ** -- Hokieesith 10/07/2019 12:30PM

Goodwill donations suspiciously high ** -- HokieDan95 10/07/2019 12:44PM

Yes we know you will fit in the conspiracy bucket ** -- TomKazanski 10/07/2019 12:29PM

Honestly, it doesn't matter. Problem with John's post - it's an example of -- hoolstoptheheels 10/07/2019 12:26PM

Preaching to the choir on this one. -- Chuck Taylor 10/07/2019 12:39PM

I hear you, but think that your last paragraph is extremely uncertain. -- hoolstoptheheels 10/07/2019 12:49PM

Your assumption is the worst case scenario. -- Chuck Taylor 10/07/2019 2:16PM

I don't assume the worst case, I assume total uncertainty. -- hoolstoptheheels 10/07/2019 2:59PM

I have to agree with you -- hooinblueville 10/07/2019 1:43PM

I am expecting a Mitt Romney type of return. -- Guy LeDouche 10/07/2019 11:16AM

Mitt Romney is a Bain guy. He might minimize his taxes ... -- Blah 10/07/2019 11:52AM

Yepa, remind me of Romney -- VaTechie 10/07/2019 11:50AM

I'm mostly on your side on this, and I'm a fan of Romney, but the one -- BocaHoo91 10/07/2019 12:01PM

Romney was also able to defer income... -- PBCHoo 10/07/2019 12:24PM

I am loving this sub thread -- VaTechie 10/07/2019 12:53PM

Yeah, although ironically, it appears that Romney turned a shit ton of -- BocaHoo91 10/07/2019 12:36PM

The blocker allows the IRA to avoid unrelated business income tax (UBIT) ** -- PBCHoo 10/07/2019 12:53PM

Thanks, those are details I do not remember -- VaTechie 10/07/2019 12:16PM

I agree, but the average person is resentful of rich people, and -- BocaHoo91 10/07/2019 12:28PM

It's definitely a gray area. ** -- Blah 10/07/2019 12:37PM

The performance bonus is not a gray area to me. -- BocaHoo91 10/07/2019 12:40PM

I get it. It is a loophole that many take advantage of on Wall Street. -- Blah 10/07/2019 12:46PM

It's been looked at for many, many years. -- PBCHoo 10/07/2019 1:11PM

Thanks, I knew you would give me back some tobacco to chew on (:>) -- VaTechie 10/07/2019 12:35PM

The word is that Trump and Romney have paid zero taxes ** -- Tuckahokie 10/07/2019 11:43AM

He bragged about that in one of his debates w/ Hill. What's the problem? ** -- hoolstoptheheels 10/07/2019 12:01PM

That's okay if it's done legally. It's not their fault. It's the ... -- Blah 10/07/2019 11:59AM

Oh, there's almost no doubt in my mind he would show -- BocaHoo91 10/07/2019 11:30AM

Sorry, but that analogy is patently ridiculous. -- hoolstoptheheels 10/07/2019 11:11AM

His tax returns would open far more questions than answer -- 111Balz 10/07/2019 11:57AM

Correct. In the case of a private, unaudited entity, the tax returns are -- hoolstoptheheels 10/07/2019 12:00PM

I don't know if there is blatant tax fraud ... -- Blah 10/07/2019 11:10AM

The NYT highlighted blatant tax fraud in prior years -- WahooMatt05 10/07/2019 12:26PM

What the NYT highlighted wasn’t a “scheme.” It was just good ol’ -- southdenverhoo 10/07/2019 2:29PM

They also set up a shell company to run fake expenses through -- WahooMatt05 10/07/2019 2:33PM

Over under until they are leaked? ** -- TomKazanski 10/07/2019 10:28AM

The fact that they haven't yet is telling -- Beerman 10/07/2019 11:29AM

No reason to worry about that, right, Tom? -- DanTheFan 10/07/2019 10:33AM

Trump was likely being modest about how much money he makes ** -- WahooMatt05 10/07/2019 10:40AM

His liberal interpretation of "goodwill" to boost his valuation ... -- Blah 10/07/2019 11:00AM

I don't think that will show up anywhere in tax returns, but yeah, -- BocaHoo91 10/07/2019 11:21AM

That's the embarrassment part. I think he used to claim ... -- Blah 10/07/2019 12:43PM

I'm not sure how any of that would show up on a tax return though -- BocaHoo91 10/07/2019 12:48PM

I believe they also asked for all the documents from Deutsche. -- Blah 10/07/2019 12:58PM

I know ''something'' will be found, real or imagined ** -- HokieDan95 10/07/2019 10:40AM

I know the real will be claimed to be imaginary by his supporters. -- HoosWillWin 10/07/2019 11:07AM

I know "nothing" will be found. Trump's taxes will be perfect., and the -- 81_Hokie 10/07/2019 11:01AM

The president is going through an awful lot to keep concealed the most -- hoolstoptheheels 10/07/2019 10:47AM

As CNN, MSNBC etc etc have gone through awful lot to make a scandal out of -- HokieDan95 10/07/2019 10:52AM

No they just report the garbage he says and does -- 111Balz 10/07/2019 11:58AM

Yeah, you can shoot the messengers, which is the essence of Trumpie -- hoolstoptheheels 10/07/2019 11:06AM

In your perpetual dumped-girlfriend style bitterness it's convenient to -- HokieDan95 10/07/2019 11:18AM

It's not at all convenient. It's hard to remember them. Hasn't happend -- hoolstoptheheels 10/07/2019 11:23AM

Yes "investigative malpractice" not to investigate dnc/hrc oppo research ** -- HokieDan95 10/07/2019 11:44AM

That has to get an LOL. It's pure conspiracy theory. -- hoolstoptheheels 10/07/2019 11:58AM

Don't forget 2 scoops of ice cream!!! ** -- HokieDan95 10/07/2019 12:01PM

Everything the hokie posts is laughable ** -- 111Balz 10/07/2019 12:00PM

Your insecurity is even more so ** -- HokieDan95 10/07/2019 12:17PM

Uh, another word you need to look up? ** -- 111Balz 10/07/2019 12:36PM

You aren't fooling anyone ** -- HokieDan95 10/07/2019 2:33PM

You’d be the last one here to know that, if I was ** -- 111Balz 10/07/2019 3:01PM

3 years of legal battles to keep his tax returns from -- wahoo138 10/07/2019 10:50AM

I love the audit excuse. If they are under audit, they've been done. -- HoosWillWin 10/07/2019 09:55AM

Every president is audited. And they all turn over their returns. -- hoolstoptheheels 10/07/2019 10:11AM

Not a few on here ** -- 81_Hokie 10/07/2019 09:57AM