It's pretty simple - far lower turnout in places like Philly, Cleveland, Flint, and Detroit, and a dramatic loss of support from historically dem voting blue collar people. And it is easy to see how as Liz stands now, she will do no better in those urban areas or with the blue collar vote. She might do better with progressives who were less enthused about Hill, but that won't change the electoral college.

The wild card in my analysis - Jill Stein. One could argue that Liz will draw all of those voters and that will be enough to win the electoral. But I think that is a shaky assertion. The dem will need to win all three of those states, and maybe more, to win in 2020.

What could change is that there is even some chance that Trump won't be running, although I think that chance is tiny. And Warren could tack away from her most pie in the sky progressive positions, or public opinion could continue to sour on Trump. I think those are some of the changes that could improve Liz's chances.