Just spitballing too, and none of us have a crystal ball, but the real questions to me are:

-who will maximize Dem voter turnout. Probably the most important, but also the trickiest. If any Dem gets Obama-level base turnout, I think it’s probably over, but what does that mean? It means bringing out a coalition of young, minority, urban/suburban progressives, and others all of whom may have different policy interests, but generally despise Trump and Trumpism. What candidate gets them most excited? Some say the candidate with the boldest ideas, others say the candidate most likely to win. I say the candidate people like the most and are comfortable will get the country back on track. Problem is, it’s still not clear who that is.

-What will the sliver of true “independents” do and will moderates who voted for Hillary because they thought trump was too crazy vote for him this time because they think the Dem is too crazy?

Possible, but not 100% sure it matters. First off, how many of those people live in MI, PA or WI? I’m not sure, but Trump can win back a million votes in Orange County, Nassau County and the like and still lose. And the data shows he is insanely unpopular in suburbs everywhere so prob a better chance those voters go Warren or whomever juet to get him out, assuming the really cray cray shit needs to get through a divided Congress to go anywhere. But I don’t know.

-GOP Base voter turnout? I have to think it will be strong regardless of which Dem wins. They are Dear Leader’s cult now and any opponent is an enemy of the state. Plus Trump will have 5X the money this time around.

But good news is it’s still the Dems election to lose. Nearly half of America has already decided they’ll vote for literally anyone to get rid of him and only 30% or so feels the same way about re-electing him. So that’s good