The Soapbox

WahooRQ

Joined: 04/30/2006 Posts: 44681
Likes: 60751


IMHO, Virginia is the quintessential Obama Coalition state.


You're correct it was a red state for decades, then Obama was finally able to flip areas like Fairfax and Loudoun Counties to the Democratic side. A massive educated middle class (that is still economically moderate to conservative, but abhors the racism, bigotry, gun-nuttery, religious fanaticism, and anti-science ignorance that have become core tenets of the GOP enough to vote Dem) in the DC area is the "swing" in Virginia. The coalition is those voters + your small number of progressives in Arlington/Alexandria/C'ville, plus African American voters (Richmond, 757) + Latinos, Asians and non-white working class voters, with the GOP essentially the party of uneducated white voters in downstate areas and cultural conservatives like Evangelical Christians.

Look at the numbers: Hillary Clinton won by 200,000 votes in Fairfax County, 70,000 in Arlington, 45,000 in Alexandria, 40,000 in Prince William, and 30,000 in Loudoun. That's a 400,000 vote advantage in an election she won by 200,000 total.

In 2004 (pre-Obama), Kerry won Fairfax, but only by 30,000 votes and lost Loudoun by 20,000 with similar margins in the progressive areas (Arl/Alex/Cville) and lost by around 300,000 votes.

Problem I see is that this "swing" demographic is NOT hardcore left, and has a breaking point--and I fear that breaking point may be a candidate like Sanders. Against a Republican like Romney or McCain, I think it would be no contest. The only difference is you'd have a lot of voters who can't stand either choice.so what do they do? I don't know, but I can't imagine Sanders would leave with a 200K vote advantage in a place like Fairfax.

Maybe I'm wrong, but the available polling data suggest, at least as of a few months ago, I'm not. And if any Dem running doesn't dominate in Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William .... that candidate is done.

Not saying Bernie CAN'T win VA, but he sure seems more vulnerable than other candidates do.
[Post edited by WahooRQ at 02/14/2020 10:54AM]

(In response to this post by Seattle .Hoo)

Posted: 02/14/2020 at 10:53AM



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