Most likely outcome, sure. A Bern win based on what we can glean now seems likelier than any other outcome to me, but I think it's still less than 50/50. If we get to a brokered convention, that would probably be because a majority of dems don't want Bern, but split among the other candidates. That may suggest that very legitimately, a significant majority of dems don't want self branded socialism leading the ticket, and the party goes a different way.

Its an international question. Populism is on the rise everywhere. It started before Trump and Bern first moved from fringe to mainstream in '16. Almost all of Europe has seen populist right surges either succeed like in the UK, or become significant factors. So what's up?

I saw a pundit make the case that in the aftermath of significant economic collapses like 1929 or 2008, nativist ideologies always assert themselves in the form of populist movements. It is not about real solutions to problems; it's about feeling better about one's prospects, and "outsiders", however defined, are convenient targets especially for opportunistic demagogues. You can also see left wing populism become more prominent (like Labor legitimately going socialist in the last Brit election, making it about much more than just Brexit, or the Greens in Europe) almost like an equal and opposite response.

That nationalist rise collides with massive immigration problems in Europe and in the US, and nativism intensifies. So, I think you can make the argument that the decision to invade Iraq in 2003 (which I think contributed massively to regional instability, especially in Syria and of course Iraq), and the incredible proliferation of credit derivatives in the '00s, go a long way towards explaining all the populism now (along with the current instability in Central America driving migration to the US).