The Soapbox

RickPerry

Joined: 10/24/2017 Posts: 1693
Likes: 2864


People are very bad at intuitively grasping the dynamics of systems like


this that include time lags and exponential components. They attribute changes to the wrong factors and make very poor forecasts as well.

There is a field called System Dynamics that studies systems like this with quantitative models that can take lags into account. It's fascinating stuff.

(In response to this post by Beerman)

Posted: 07/12/2020 at 10:34AM



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Current Thread:
 
  
For those in denial... -- Beerman 07/12/2020 09:52AM
  Liberal politicians. -- ryno hoo 07/12/2020 12:34PM
  We didn’t have enough masks ** -- 111Balz 07/12/2020 12:55PM
  Exactly. ** -- hoodeyo 07/12/2020 12:39PM
  Cuz Amurrikins have a right to their ignorance! ** -- SixerHoo 07/12/2020 12:20PM
  Rush right out to a Covid party near you! ** -- WaxHoo 07/12/2020 1:44PM
  True Amurrikins don’t trust knowledge!** -- SixerHoo 07/12/2020 12:46PM
  No, that’s a classic sunk cost. -- hoolstoptheheels 07/12/2020 11:08AM
  No worry. It's just gonna disappear soon (link) -- Hoo TV 07/12/2020 10:08AM

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