Testing has not plateaued, but cases have grown faster than testing
so there is actual growth in cases... it's not just that we've discovered more.
things will invariably get worse as deaths lag hospitalizations which lag cases, and the latter two are growing. However, I do not think we will see another NYC or northern Italy type thing which exploded as a result of ZERO precautions being taken until mass infection had already taken hold. There are a lot of knuckleheads out there, but a lot of people ARE now taking precautions. Just take a look at the explosion in cases and deaths in NY early in the pandemic:
Weekly Cases and Deaths
........................3/13/20.....3/20/20.....3/27/20.....4/3/20.....4/10/20.....4/17/20
NY Cases.........399...........6,776.......40,483......63,883.....78,131.....69,705
NY Deaths............0................57............505........2,503.......5,471.......5,755
Compare that to the last 6 weeks for Florida
...........................6/6/20.....6/13/20.....6/20/20......6/27/20.......7/4/20.......7/11/20
FL Cases ..........7,334......10,794.......20,245.......38,748.......57,507.......69,399
FL Deaths.............241...........237...........219............246............312............445
Cases have exploded in Florida, but so far deaths have increased but not exploded. I think the primary difference is the while florida is no doubt under counting actual cases by some factor, I think NY was undercounting cases by an absolutely massive factor. So the spike in NY wasn't due to 60-70K weekly cases, it was due to 500K+ (or more) weekly cases. We just weren't able to test back then. Plus NY did a terrible job protecting the long term care facilities. And we've gotten better at treatments.
So yes, it will get worse. Maybe it's just wishful thinking on my part, but I don't see it getting anywhere near as bad as NYC or Lomardi Italy. Hope I'm right for the first time on this.
|
(
In response to this post by Beerman)
Posted: 07/12/2020 at 12:21PM