The Soapbox

BocaHoo91

Joined: 06/03/2005 Posts: 31020
Likes: 52377


@Hoodafan Somehow I missed the thread below on tax cuts and the deficit...


Must have been blah and resist's little love spat which scrolled it off the top of the screen too quickly

Anyway, since you indirectly called me out and it's scrolled off the screen, I thought I'd post my reply in a new thread.

First of all, it's good to see now that you're accepting the use of "theoretical revenue projections". Regarding this quote from your post:

"What’s amazing about that number is that in June 2017, the CBO projected that the government would collect $4.011 trillion in revenue in 2021. In other words, in the most recent fiscal year, the government raised $36 billion more than was expected before the Trump tax cuts were passed."

I think it was well established in that previous thread that we ALL agreed 2021 was a good year for tax revenues with a strong, rebounding economy coming out of the pandemic, and the government pumping $3 Trillion of stimulus into the economy. What we didn't agree with you on is that the tax cuts were the reason for strong 2021 revenues. But since comparisons to CBO projections are now apparently OK with you, let's take a look at more than just 1 year.

The attached table has the 4 years of tax revenues since the Trump tax cuts, with the first column being the baseline revenue projections from 2017 from the CBO BEFORE the tax cuts. You will recognize the $4.011 trillion number in 2021 which is the same 2021 revenue # from your post. The next column is the CBO's estimate for the net impact of the Trump tax cuts. The next column is the revised CBO projections, subtracting the estimated impact of the 2017 tax cuts from the 2017 year baseline revenue projections. The 4th column is ACTUAL revenues. The 5th column is the difference between the original baseline revenue projections (pre tax cut) and actual revenues (obviously after the tax cut). You can see that (mostly) as predicted by the CBO, over the 4 years since the tax cuts went into effect, actual revenues came in significantly lower than the baseline revenue projections. To the tune of $822 billion lower. The CBO projected revenues to be $956 billion lower as a result of the tax cut, so actual revenue performance was slightly more favorable than forecast, but still significantly below the pre-tax cut baseline projections. So the tax cuts are responsible for revenues being roughly $800 billion lower than they would have been had we not cut taxes and are responsible for ~$800 billion of the increase in our deficit over the last 4 years.

Posted: 10/15/2021 at 6:35PM



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Current Thread:
  Who gives a rip about projections -- TomKazanski 10/15/2021 9:17PM
  LOL. You can't be a UVA graduate. ** -- Blah 10/16/2021 12:06PM
  No ** -- WaxHoo 10/15/2021 9:24PM
  Show your work ** -- HokieDan95 10/15/2021 9:36PM
  HooDuh would never, ever, lie by omission ** -- WaxHoo 10/15/2021 8:07PM
  I, for one, don’t know who to believe. ** -- hokie in cville 10/15/2021 7:02PM

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