I heard about 80% better off in year 1, but that decreases over time so that less than 50% are better off by 2027, creating a tax hike for more than half the country going forward (though most people assume future congresses will change that). But, if people's paychecks go up by $15-$20/week, will they notice? If history is any indication, no they won't. Obama's tax cuts as part of Recovery bills were bled in over time, and people didn't notice them. People don't tend to notice small increases. So, if history repeats itself, while most people will see an increase (in 2018), it won't be enough for people to notice. A bigger driver will be what people see around them. Has the economy improved in their community? If yes, Trump will get credit for it. But if those rust belt states are in the same shape as 1-2 years ago, I don't think a $15-$20/week bump is going to make them think this bill is awesome. It hasn't changed people's perceptions in the past.

It will also be very easy to point to all the broken promises Trump made to spin this as a negative (he said he wouldn't be better off, he said he'd get rid of the carried interest provision, he said he'd punish companies for going overseas, etc.). This bill is as swampy as it gets. The negative ads can be 100% factual, and extremely effective at trashing this bill as being for the 1%.