The Soapbox

Joined: 09/29/2013 Posts: 60530
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I've seen nonsensical numbers like that and the absurd 60% claim from our

resident banker that should be able to handle simple math to question such nonsense (unless he doesn't want to).

Yet another cherry picked at best, totally made up at worst, figure designed to deceive and scare people like "being able to charge 5X what they can today". I believe you guys used to call that "anecdotal evidence" before dismissing it when it came to premium increases under OCare.

That type of conclusion can only come from faulty assumptions. To begin with, we have no idea at this point what types of plans will be available under a new plan, nor competitive pressures from cross state lines, further tort reform, individuals buying into associations, etc. But even discounting that, you can only get to the 60% figure if you assume the young and healthy plans don't go down (i.e. if $300 to $900 w/3x cap, goes to $1500 at 5x cap just to use figures, but ignores that if the young and healthy can get a $200 plan, 5x cap is now $1000). The math simply doesn't support even 60% increase claims, let alone the 800+% increase you just suggested.

The only way you can possibly get those types of extreme #'s is by using some of the most heavily subsidized plans and comparing them to plans with no subsidy (or tax credit if you prefer that term) and assuming only the OCare compliant plans will be available. To say that's a tiny portion of the population would be an overstatement. But more importantly, heavy subsidies don't make that plan in your example $1700/yr to begin with (unless you can show me a 64 yr old that can buy a plan for under $150/mo now), it just makes someone else pay the vast majority of that person's premium.

(In response to this post by southdenverhoo)

Posted: 03/21/2017 at 1:27PM

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'Pubs lining up behind Ryancare -- Quaker 03/21/2017 08:59AM

Good. And it's 5X the cheapest, vs 3X the cheapest now. But don't let -- Hoodafan 03/21/2017 11:23AM

All indications are it will be a disaster. But good. The GOP will own it.** -- Seattle .Hoo 03/21/2017 1:33PM

Exactly. They should do nothing and let ACA fail ** -- TpkeHoo 03/21/2017 1:56PM

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They certainly have undermined it as much as possible. Now the next step. ** -- Seattle .Hoo 03/21/2017 3:12PM

Too late; they already own it ** -- Quaker 03/21/2017 3:08PM

I think they can effectively spin it that they don't, actually. ** -- southdenverhoo 03/21/2017 4:44PM

I'm almost positive this will be the path they choose. -- southdenverhoo 03/21/2017 2:02PM

Actually the cost of coverage for a 64 year old who is earning -- southdenverhoo 03/21/2017 12:50PM

I've seen nonsensical numbers like that and the absurd 60% claim from our -- Hoodafan 03/21/2017 1:27PM

5 is how much more than 3? His numbers come from the CBO -- 111Balz 03/21/2017 1:32PM

Try reading again. For understanding this time. ** -- Hoodafan 03/21/2017 1:39PM

He's right that my number came from the CBO. But I was wrong about the wage -- southdenverhoo 03/21/2017 2:00PM

That's kind of making my point, that these statistics like "charging 5X -- Hoodafan 03/21/2017 2:59PM

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Soi their premiums go up 60% and available tax credits are -- 111Balz 03/21/2017 12:24PM

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Except 5X what they do today is a lie. Young and healthy are people too -- Hoodafan 03/21/2017 11:40AM

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Young people get old eventually. ** -- HoosWillWin 03/21/2017 1:32PM

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Maybe risk amortization would be a better term? -- southdenverhoo 03/21/2017 2:28PM

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Technically accurate, however I was responding to someone.................. -- Chuck Taylor 03/21/2017 12:14PM

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