The Soapbox

nyhoo

Joined: 08/14/1998 Posts: 1539
Likes: 1286


I had a call today with former Ambassador Clifford Hart on North Korea


Nothing that monumental or original here:

1) There will not be a war in the Peninsula. There are many reasons, mainly that there is no real military solution: a surgical strike cannot take out the nuclear program nor the regime and would result in tens of thousands of casualties in South Korea within a couple of hours. Currently, there is zero evidence that the US is preparing for any conflict at all: no emergency dialog with China, South Korea, Japan, no change in DEFCON, George Washington strike group is standing down in harbor, etc.

2) Immediate future will look a lot like the past: we will fluctuate between tension, engagement, negotiations, abatement

3) Long Term future: North Korea will be a fully capable nuclear state, and the world will simply adjust, just as we did to Russia, china, Pakistan, etc.

4) Trump: as a self-described nonpartisan, this guy just eviscerated Trump: “remarkable ignorant”, “a college freshman taking ‘International Relations’ 101”, “clumsy bull in a China shop.” He feels that Trumps inflammatory rhetoric has been “destructive, unwise, stupid, and unhelpful” and plays right into the NK regime’s hands. He says Trump’s tactics will ultimately backfire, as you can’t “out Trump North Korea.” He feels that Trump is killing our credibility because it is obvious to everybody the gap between the rhetoric and reality. Trump is just adding risk into an already very volatile situation

5) China Relations – there is a lot of continuity in the relationship and ultimately he does not think Trump will disrupt that

6) He was very complimentary of the foreign policy team.

(In response to this post by Tuckahokie)

Posted: 08/17/2017 at 5:04PM



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Current Thread:
  Only solution -- hoothat 08/17/2017 11:05PM
  National review piece that disagrees. -- KCHoo 08/17/2017 9:19PM
  Agreed -- wahoo138 08/17/2017 6:51PM
  Agree. ** -- Shenhoo 08/17/2017 6:13PM
  Smart post. -- psychobilly 08/17/2017 4:59PM
  No, that's not really fair. -- hoolstoptheheels 08/17/2017 6:34PM
  "Alt-left" is classic Trump demagoguery. -- hoolstoptheheels 08/17/2017 7:10PM
  He took "Alt Left" from fucking Hannity, lol. -- hoodeyo 08/17/2017 8:26PM
  I agree to a point. He views them as an evil that -- Hoojack 08/17/2017 5:29PM

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