The Soapbox

hoolstoptheheels

Joined: 01/04/2001 Posts: 26993
Likes: 34246


My crystal ball is no better than yours, but that's not what I expect.


I think there will never be an inflection point, unless the worst happens and all this populism leads to war. If God forbid that happens, it could be extremely bloody, and we'll go into it with the world looking one way, and we either destroy ourselves completely or we recover into a world that looks totally different.

Otherwise, I don't think there will ever be an identifiable "inflection" just like there wasn't with Japan. The economic threat posed by Japan was overstated for many, many years, and really more than anything, all that happened was we got into the 1990s and eventually said "remember how Japan was buying up all of Manhattan and was about to take over the world? Whatever happened to that?"

Read Michael Crichton's "Rising Sun", written back in the early 1990s. Made into a Sean Connery movie. The book in particular is almost comical now. It was a purveyor of doom and gloom about this grand Japanese worldwide takeover, when Japan's economy was already into its stagnation - we just couldn't see that yet.

There isn't going to be some massive instantaneous transformation now. The transition is undoubtedly already underway in ways we can't yet see. 15, 20, 50 years from now, we'll be able to make more sense of it all in the rear view mirror.

(In response to this post by Beerman)

Posted: 11/29/2017 at 12:29PM



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Current Thread:
 
  
McKinsey: Automation could kill 73 million U.S. jobs by 2030 -- Fuzzy Dunlop 11/29/2017 10:03AM
  Tax the robots... ** -- Hokie5150 11/29/2017 12:48PM
  Some observations -- 757 11/29/2017 12:21PM
  WalMart is essentially a self service store now. -- PalmyraHoo 11/29/2017 12:39PM
  Also -- Beerman 11/29/2017 1:14PM
  Bravo. And a very well phrased rejection of Trumpism, -- hoolstoptheheels 11/29/2017 11:21AM
  On the other hand... -- Beerman 11/29/2017 11:54AM
  I agree. -- hoolstoptheheels 11/29/2017 11:57AM
  A few disagreements here. -- hoolstoptheheels 11/29/2017 11:48AM
  I agree with your last paragraph. -- hoolstoptheheels 11/29/2017 12:56PM
  Apples and oranges. We are talking here about a -- hoolstoptheheels 11/29/2017 12:41PM
  Yep, well said ** -- 111Balz 11/29/2017 1:45PM
  We're in vigorous agreement, RML ** -- WaxHoo 11/29/2017 11:36AM
  LMFTFY -- Beerman 11/29/2017 11:16AM
  And that it will matter -- Beerman 11/29/2017 1:16PM
  A few do. The vast majority do not.** -- WaxHoo 11/29/2017 11:34AM
  Correct. And that is the key. Not govt. ** -- hoolstoptheheels 11/29/2017 11:25AM
  Some yes, some no -- Beerman 11/29/2017 11:36AM
  Not this. It's all about making a buck. -- hoolstoptheheels 11/29/2017 11:54AM
  But it's not a switch that will flip overnight -- Beerman 11/29/2017 12:00PM
  That’s a lot less sexual harassment. ** -- Hokieesith 11/29/2017 10:29AM
  They got sex robots now, man -- Fuzzy Dunlop 11/29/2017 10:31AM
  Solution: -- HooJet 11/29/2017 10:22AM
  That's not as much fun without the audio! :) ** -- Hokie5150 11/29/2017 10:26AM
  It's going to be a disaster -- Beerman 11/29/2017 10:21AM

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