also anti-impeachment bias. I read a quote from new congresswoman Rashida Tlaib, in essence saying the dems big House 2018 win is a mandate, even a demand, from the country to impeach. Other dems claiming they view it as their duty to impeach. I think neither of those things is true. Tlaib seems to be drawing conclusions about the nation from her sense of her own district. If anything, I think the lesson is that even in certain red districts, dems can win with the right strategy in the age of Trump. The right strategy in '18 was a district by district call, but it was always about de-emphasizing impeachment, and emphasizing issues, policy, health care, etc. Or just presenting a nice alternative to what many of us see as the extreme ugliness of Trump. And in terms of this being a "Constitutional duty", I see the Constitution as being very deliberately vague on the notion, while setting the bar very high to overturn an election, making it essentially a political call. Lots of judgement, and just like in the late '90s, when the entire thing falls straight down party lines, the political call IMO should be.. do not impeach. Litigate it with the people in the election.

I'm increasingly concerned that point of view will not win out. In fact if I were a Trumpie, I'd be hoping for an extended period of agonizing within the dem party, hopefully with a vote to impeach once the primaries are underway. Force candidates to take positions. Motivate the party extremes so that they dominate the primaries even more than usual. I think that would create enormous headwinds for whatever candidate this extreme-tinged primary process selects to face Trump. I think that is the worst possible scenario for those who want Trump defeated.

So what to do? Impeachment would be purely symbolic. There is a better chance that the sun will explode 5 seconds after you read this than that the senate will toss him out. Other than thrilling the already converted, I see no point politically. But I also don't know if it can be stopped. Trump will stonewall, he will ensure this drags out by refusing to observe subpoenas to prevent the "full airing" Congress wants to support an impeachment. Playing into Trumpian hands, at least if I'm right about the worst case for dems.

So I think I have a weird conclusion. I relent. When Trump refuses to let McGahn testify, and fights each and every subpoena, get it over with. Impeach now. Let the senate instantly vote it down, if it even takes it up in the first place. We might even see more than expected congressional dems vote against it, but whatever, get it done and over with and out of the news cycle before it can dominate the primaries. Repubs would try to keep it front and center, but we don't have long attention spans.

That's the calculation I make - best option IMO is no impeachment. Second best is get it the hell over with.