Inflation in 2015 was 0.12% (see: https://www.statista.com/statistics/244983/projected-inflation-rate-in-the-united-states/), so revenue was fairly flat from 2015-16 after several years of growth apparent in the link you gave. And then revenue growth didn't keep up with inflation from FY17 to FY18 and basically matched inflation since then. That isn't exactly a slam dunk for the Laffer curve or a tax cut that pays for itself, which is how it was justified. To say that the massive increase in the deficit from 2017 to 2019 was just spending is silly.

Ultimately though, any argument that says the budget deficit is only due to spending is dogmatic and ignores the reality of the federal budget. We were at a $986B deficit in FY19 on $3.46T revenue, while non-defense discretionary spending was $661B (see: https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-budget/policy-basics-non-defense-discretionary-programs). Literally, we could zero out every agency except DOD and it wouldn't eliminate the deficit. I personally would like at least some of the services provided by the FAA, FDA, etc, but if you want to cut all those then we can find the next $300B to eat away at. If you want to talk about defense cuts or social security cuts or anything else I'm game. What comes next?

The point above is that it's not just a spending problem unless you want to burn down the house. Certainly spending changes have to play a role in getting the deficit under control. But the economy was strong in 2017 when Trump's tax cuts took effect and the deficit situation was fairly promising after Obama allowed some of the Bush tax cuts to expire and sequestration restrained both defense and non-defense spending. If you look at unemployment (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/April-Jobs-Report-1-820x493.png) or GDP (see: https://www.statista.com/statistics/188165/annual-gdp-growth-of-the-united-states-since-1990/) or the S&P (see: https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data), you can't tell where Trump took office or where the tax cuts took effect. All that they accomplished from a macro perspective was cutting revenue and increasing the structural deficit. So yes, they were as "unnecessary" as any tax cut can possibly be.



[Post edited by CMUHoo at 12/28/2020 4:38PM]