1) Note that number of deaths will likely be higher than normal for the foreseeable future as the Baby Boomer generation reaches mortality age. The oldest Boomers are now 76 years old.
2) Go back 10 years or so and find predictions for expected deaths by year.
3) Adjust those numbers for net immigration in the last 10 years (legal and illegal)
4) Look at growth rates in deaths for each year.
5) See if the 2018/2019 deaths were on target or above/below expectations. If below expectations, then you'd expected higher 2020 and 2021 deaths.
6) Then see how many "excess deaths" there are.

Once all this is done, you have a reasonable guess at excess deaths. To determine how many are due to COVID vs. the idiotic government response to COVID, you would need to know the number of excess deaths related to things like failure to thrive, untreated cancer/heart disease/diabetes/etc., suicides/drug overdoses, etc., which are probably unknowable, meaning the number of death caused by COVID is also unknowable.

The takeaway is that, IMO, COVID definitely killed a large number of people -- like a particularly bad flu season -- but the number of life years actually lost is misrepresented by the "COVID death" stats, and the costs associated with the political and medical malpractice around the response to COVID is dramatically higher than any benefits received.